Topic: The Amazing Race 14 Speculation on Spoilers

[apskip]

Sukhothai is within several hours of Chiang Mai and there is a closer(under one hour) airport at Phitsanulok. If the former it could be conceptualized as part of a Chiang Mai visit(which was on my list). If the latter, it would be an independent place and not on my list. Given the photos Peach has provided (thanks, Peach), which were attributed by its authors to ARA4 (which doesn't exist yet according to my understanding), it is hard to say precisely which of 3 races was visiting. From a strictly mathematical viewpoint, all could get there at the right time so I am going to say that there is about a 1/3 probabiliity that those racers are on AR14.

[apskip]

Both Georgia and Uzbekistan remain on the  State Dept warning list, so I would think those might be unlikely.

http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_1764.html

Peach, you are correct that both Georgia and Uzbekistan are on the State Ddepartment warning list. However, a few things emerge from the pages on those countries. In Georgia, the major risks are South Ossetia and Abkhazia and areas adjacent to them. That leaves a lot of territory. In Uzbekistan, the State Department admits that there has been no violence since 2005. They could have been used, but since there are safer equivalent places AR14 could go, I agree with your assessment that those countries were not used.

[Alvin06]

Just a speculation here: Is it possible that before going to China, teams go to an Oceanian country, say Australia or even Papua New Guinea before going to Guillin, China?

Another question, as for the country before Thailand, is it possible to have a northeast African country like Egypt (since geographically, it's quite near Romania and perhaps other intermediate countries in between?)

[apskip]

Just a speculation here: Is it possible that before going to China, teams go to an Oceanian country, say Australia or even Papua New Guinea before going to Guillin, China?

Another question, as for the country before Thailand, is it possible to have a northeast African country like Egypt (since geographically, it's quite near Romania and perhaps other intermediate countries in between?)

Alvin06, I will do my best to give you my takes on your questions:

Yes, it is possible that AR14 went to Oceania(Australia or Papua New Guinea) between Phuket and Guilin. However, it is maybe 4000 miles to either one so the probabilty of doing so is miniscule, far less than 1% in my opinion. They are not worth thinking about. If TAR14 was headed from Phuket for Australia or New Zealand before jumping off to Hawaii, it would be different.  But a known route from Beijing to Hawaii negates that possibility.

Egypt is a possibility. It along with many other places not on my list for the place after Russia and before Phuket has a combined probability of about 50%. I believe those on my list above have a combined proability of about 50%. However, the straight line for the route from southern Russia to Phuket does not come within thousands of miles of anywhere in Eqypt, so again I have to rate its probability at below 1%.

[selkie]

I'd say Georgia was low probability because the conflict in the region is so recent, and even though the peace agreements seem to be holding right now, there's still risk of something nasty spilling over into Tblisi. Egypt seems to be quietly sliding toward something nasty. There have been a couple other reality shows that have filmed there in the last two years (Anthony Bourdain's No Reservations, Ewan MacGregor's Long Way Down) and Tony's talked about having to sneak cameras around because the government didn't want him filming pretty much anywhere outside pre-selected tourist areas, and the Long Way Down crew had to be part of an Army caravan from Cairo down to the Sudan border because of banditry concerns on Egyptian roadways.

I'd bet Papua New Guinea is off the list because of safety concerns and because it would cost a lot of money to get insurance to go there.

Uzbekistan might be a possibility. It's a new place, relatively safe since the unrest of 2005, and seems open to 'cultural exchanges' with Noth American and EU countries.

[TARAsia Fan]

I also feel Georgia, USA is not a site for this year's race simply due to the fact the producers do not know any other section of the country besides Los Angeles.

[Hooky]

I also feel Georgia, USA is not a site for this year's race simply due to the fact the producers do not know any other section of the country besides Los Angeles.

My second biggest pet peeve about the new "condensed" seasons, the first being the "condensed" part.

[mjriches2005]

I'm thinking that the leg between the Phuket, Thailand and Guilin, China they could've stayed in Thailand like they did on TAR1 (Bangkok/Krabi-Phuket) and TAR2 (Bangkok-Chiang Mai) or have gone to another country in Southeast Asia. There are many locations that the American Amazing Race has not been like Kuching and Penang, Malaysia; Laos; Medan, Indonesia (on the island of Sumatra); and Brunei.  Besides, there is no chance that they could go to Australia or any other part of Oceania since it would take two days to get there from Phuket even with airport connections in Bangkok and Singapore.   

[Neobie]

Went to interrogate the Sheraton receptionists today. The two at the desk didn't seem to know much about TAR filming - they said they weren't in charge of this group! Just one learning point: typing in "WRP Group" into their system does not bring up any results. Bertram didn't use that name to book, which really means Shanghai is still 100% out in the open?

Will try the other locations tomorrow. I have 24 hours to dig out as much as I can!

Your roving correspondent Neobie, reporting from Guilin, China.

[Mrs Shrek]

go neobie!

you really are going the extra mile hunting for clues

[MilkBB]

Molova or Bulgaria after romania leg

[hakushu8]

Just bringing this over from Sucks:

Start with Post 224: credit to Nickasingh

Kinda weird that a month AFTER filming, the flag is still there. But it's at Bangkok, compared to Phuket were the sightings were held. Thoughts?

For mine:
1. I don't think it's any other race other than TAR14.
2. Red herring. Or not related to TAR at all.
3. Flag that was completely forgotten. Uh oh.

[scuzneck]

How do you guys and gals find your information? I have always been fascinated by the extreme amount of data that is placed on the site. I want to help, but have no earthly idea how to even begin.

Keep up the grand work!!

Happy Holidays to all!!!

Brian

[apskip]

scuzneck,
There may be many specific answers to your question, but a general answer is "elbow grease", hard work and perseverance plus the cultivation over time of sources all over the world.

[marigold]

Though I am in no position to answer your question I believe there has to be a genuine interest, so you are headed in the right direction.

Specializing or focusing on a certain element (sort of a piece of the puzzle) that alone takes hard core discipline it’s not easy or pretty I would bet there are days they are banging their heads on the wall or wanting to toss their computer across the room. Did that scare you?

I personally think to manage and master it all like puddin is something NO ONE can reach lol I tell her all the time she blows my mind. 

It’s certainly impressive isn’t it.

Good Luck

[puddin]

^^ No No its a combination of team effort, everyone contributes in different ways, no one person is above or better....everyone brings different thinge to the table then we sort it out, yeah like a puzzle, lol.
Really I just try to keep the threads organized and that is due to me OCD, can't stand clutter

How do you guys and gals find your information? I have always been fascinated by the extreme amount of data that is placed on the site. I want to help, but have no earthly idea how to even begin.

Keep up the grand work!!

Happy Holidays to all!!!

Brian

Thanks for the kind words Brian, our detectives are the best of the best 
How can you help? search and seach and search and hope you hit the right blog, right picture, right combination something something .

[puddin]

Just bringing this over from Sucks:

Start with Post 224: credit to Nickasingh

Kinda weird that a month AFTER filming, the flag is still there. But it's at Bangkok, compared to Phuket were the sightings were held. Thoughts?

For mine:
1. I don't think it's any other race other than TAR14.
2. Red herring. Or not related to TAR at all.
3. Flag that was completely forgotten. Uh oh.

I don't know what to make of it either hakushu but thanks for bringing it over. If I were Nickasingh I probably would have swiped it

[Neobie]

Hope everyone's enjoying their holidays!

Went back to the Sheraton on another shift and managed to meet the receptionist manager; He told me that production kept very much to themselves, referring to everything they did as a "commercial secret". He did talk to one of the locals in charge though, and although he (the guy in charge) was a Beijinger, he did work for a travel consultancy based in Shanghai. Does this mean anything?

The Sun & Moon Towers are on Shan Lake, and although the ticket counter people told me there wasn't any filming at the towers last month, they pointed me across the lake to Zhiyin Tai (loosely translatable as Soulmate Pier). It's just a pretty stone platform jutting out into the lake, where boats leave to cruise the lakes and rivers of Guilin.

There was a ticket counter there for boat cruises, and the guy there (in a very suspicious manner) told me he didn't know anything, and that he worked on alternate days, so maybe he missed whatever was going on. Refused to admit to anything regarding filming, unlike the other people I asked. Checked back the next day and there he was in the booth. Not a really good liar, eh?

A lady there with a photo shop told me she remembers a huge crowd of people rushing onto the platform from the street (Binjiang Lu, or Waterside Rd), did a little bit of filming, and rushed off again. She said she didn't see any activity with regards to the boats. She thinks it was in the early afternoon.

Also met this bunch of really lovely cleaning ladies, who told me they heard of filming being done in the morning. (They told me they were working in the afternoon shift, and therefore didn't see the racers.) Was in the morning though when I met them, so maybe they changed their working schedule?

But they gave me another lead, that not only was filming done at Zhiyin Pier, but also across town at the Old South Gate!

Coming back soon with a little bit more, on the Old South Gate (not much info from there really), the dates and times, and of course the perfect spot for a Pit Stop!

PS: Puddin, any way I could add the photos I took to your photo albums? Don't want to overload this page...

[georgiapeach]

Oh Neobie!! Great job!! Guilin sounds wonderful!!

And how "amazing" that you are tracking our guys...wanna go to Hawaii next??!!

And the happiest of holidays to you too...

[puddin]

Send the photos to me or peach Neobie, something tells me shes a step ahead but really I am more than happy too host them or just attach them here and I'll host them later.
Great detective work Neobie   

[georgiapeach]

South City Gate:

pictured here, a remnant of the old walled city of Guilin, the south gate entrance to the city...! This old gate, now restored to pristine condition, was built all the way back in the Tang Dynasty! It sits right next to Rong Hu and there is a long tunnel hidden behind the gate itself which you can actually walk through to get an idea of what it was like to enter the city in ancient times...!

[puddin]

Thanks to Neobie for translating, from the China Forum (thanks to TARA who brought us the Guilin sighting). The thing is they are saying that the poster is lying, cheating so we shall see but here it is fwiw.
And no, whatever picture was posted I don't see either

Only the top post of importance:
 
在地铁一号线转二号线八号线的转换大厅里看到Phil和一群外国人...
但是没看到选手...
估计是在录制Phil讲述任务的片段吧
人上人下的可惜没几个人在关注Phil....
自己留心拍了照片!
 
"Saw Phil and a bunch of foreigners in the interchange hall between Lines 1 and 2/8...
No contestants though.
I think Phil was probably explaining a task.
People were coming and going, but no one was paying attention to Phil..."
 
Can't interpret the last line - something about taking a photo? But I don't see any photo there, do you?
 
Oh, the interchange station is Renmin/People's Square.

 

[Neobie]

My dream-lists since TAR9 have always included a Guilin-Guangzhou combination; Shanghai does seem a little repetitive, and out of the way! (But you know, 100% speculation...)

Got corroboration from various people that the Guilin leg took place on the 17th of November. Here are the various clues from the locals that help confirm the fact:
1. It was a Monday.
2. Production started serious work two days before, and on the third day (presumably the day the racers came by) it was drizzling.

With Phuket being filmed at least until the afternoon of the 15th, that would mean Phuket and Guilin are consecutive legs! Will discuss more in the timetables thread...

Nothing much to report at the South Gate, but just enough to confirm that teams were there. A girl in the Tourist Office (20m west of the gate) remembers seeing a team run past with a camera crew, eastwards towards the gate. A pair of tour guides told me they heard of filming on both sides of the twin bridges, just in front of the gates. Nobody at the gate, though, could tell me anything. There's a tea shop on top, but the manager there told me if there was any filming at or outside their shop, they would have been contacted. (Lie detector did not go off, I kind of believe her.)

[gingerman28]

According to an interview with BVM in TV Guide (for week of January 5) teams will be visiting fewer airports (rah rah) and will suffer through a blizzard in Central Siberia and will have "Olympic-themed challenges in Beijing

That can account for two missing locations.  Central Siberia could mean a visit to either Novosibirsk or Irkutsk or Ulan-Ude or perhaps Krasnoyarsk And these three cities are connected to Beijing by  a major rail link.

[puddin]

According to an interview with BVM in TV Guide (for week of January 5) teams will be visiting fewer airports (rah rah) and will suffer through a blizzard in Central Siberia and will have "Olympic-themed challenges in Beijing

That can account for two missing locations.  Central Siberia could mean a visit to either Novosibirsk or Irkutsk or Ulan-Ude or perhaps Krasnoyarsk And these three cities are connected to Beijing by  a major rail link.

Damn my tvguide wasn't there today but thanks for the info Gman  "Central Siberia" !!!!!!!!!!!
Anything else Gman?