More speculation than Spoiler below
Survivor: All-Stars – Who Will Go in Episode 9?
by Betsy Wasser -- 03/31/2004
As always, my predictions are based on what we’ve seen on the show, and are 100% spoiler-free. Let’s get to it, shall we?
It’s finally time for another new episode of Survivor: All-Stars which means that it’s time for another of our castaways to get their torch snuffed. Who will the next one to make the walk of shame away from tribal council? Betsy has her predictions, as always, based on logic and no spoilers.
On the last episode of Survivor: All-Stars, Ethan was sent home. With his ouster, there are now no more winners left in the game. And with Colby already gone, there are no runners-up, either. Will strong third-place finishers Lex and Kathy find their heads on the chopping block next? Plus, the previews for this week’s episode suggest another twist. Is it a merge or something else? Is anyone safe? There’s no way of knowing for sure, but that’s not going to stop me from guessing. As always, my predictions are based on what we’ve seen on the show, and are 100% spoiler-free. Let’s get to it, shall we?
First, let’s assume that the tribes stay the same this week – no merge and no shake-up. With those assumptions in mind, who is in danger in Mogo Mogo? There are only four players left: Lex, Kathy, Shii Ann, and Jerri. Lex has been the player who made the decision on whom to vote out for the past few tribal councils, but Kathy is also considered a power player. Lex has a secret alliance with Jerri, and Kathy has a not so secret alliance with Shii Ann. Lex could move to take Kathy out, but he’d have to get Shii Ann on his side to avoid a tie, and I don’t think she’d want to betray her one ally at this stage of the game, especially because it would mean that she would be the very next one targeted. If Kathy made a move to get rid of Lex, she’d have trouble securing Jerri’s vote. That leaves Shii Ann and Jerri as the potential targets. Of the two, Jerri is the more likely choice. If Kathy approaches Lex to vote out Jerri, what’s Lex going to say – “Sorry, but I have a secret final two alliance with the woman that you and Shii Ann totally hate”? No, he’ll have to agree to her plan. Mogo Mogo doesn’t have much of a choice; if they go to tribal council again, they’ll have to get rid of Jerri. The good news is, I doubt they’ll miss her!
In the recap episode and in the latest edition of Survivor Insider, we’ve gotten to see a little bit more about tribal politics in Chapera. We know that Boston Rob has an alliance with Big Tom that he considers secondary to his alliance with Amber. That confirms that, as I’ve said, Alicia is the only person on Chapera who is not in an alliance with Boston Rob. And in the most recentInsider footage, Boston Rob made it clear that he cannot stand Alicia. Without a doubt, Alicia has a huge target on her back.
Is it possible that Chapera will target someone other than Alicia? Well, if they’re smart, they’ll take out Boston Rob. A merge is coming – if not this week, then soon. Boston Rob has dominated the challenges and has proven to be the strongest player left in the game by far. He has a tremendous amount of political control and is the leader of his tribe. That’s exactly the kind of person Chapera might want to get rid of just before the merge. Rob’s power is made even more evident by his obvious relationship with Amber. In the recap show, we saw him snuggling with Jenna as well. He and Amber think that effectively hides their relationship, but from what the other castaways have said in interviews, they’re not fooling anyone.
Rob also made what I thought was a monumentally dumb move by making such a point of out-fishing Rupert. Rupert is very proud of his fishing skills and made it very clear that he wanted to feed the tribe. Rob said that with the spear, fishing would be just as easy as picking up a goldfish in a pet store with a net. If that’s what Rob thinks, and if he doesn’t want the rest of the tribe to think they can’t live without Rupert, then he should tell the others that quietly. But instead, he had to go out in front of Rupert and show that he could catch just as many fish. To make matters even worse, while he was out in the water, he let loose a couple of Rupert-style yells. He might as well have grabbed Rupert by the shoulders, shaken him, and screamed, “I don’t respect you! And I don’t need you!”
If Chapera loses immunity, Rupert could take his fellow ex-Saboga ally Jenna and team up with Big Tom and Alicia to get rid of Rob. They would have ample reason to do so. But I don’t think it’s going to happen. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from eight seasons of Survivor, it’s that what players should do and what they actually do are two very different things. Basically, Chapera has had it easy so far. They’ve only had to go to tribal council one time, and they made the easy decision to vote out their most threatening player, Rob C. (The other player they lost, Sue, left voluntarily.) They consider themselves the happy tribe, a family, and are having a great time. Getting rid of Rob would be a tough vote for them, and Chapera isn’t ready for that yet. Voting out the unaligned Alicia, on the other hand, will allow them to keep the peace at camp. Only Alicia will be upset by the results. Chapera will have to abandon their happy family feeling eventually, but they don’t have to do it yet, and I don’t think they will.
If the two tribes merge next week, Chapera is going to start Pagonging Mogo Mogo. Lex will be the first to fall because he is the biggest threat, both physically and politically. If Kathy thinks she’ll be able to jump ship and make friends with Chapera, I think she’s being naïve. Chapera is so superior numerically that having her join them provides no advantage at all. In fact, if Chapera saves Kathy for last, players run the risk of her teaming up with other members of the tribe to stage a coup, since she’s said she get along so well with everyone. Because they don’t need her, and because a smart, likeable power player could be a major theat later, I think they’ll gladly vote her off over the less threatening Shii Ann or Jerri.
It’s possible that the twist will be something else altogether. Maybe Jeff will have them mix up into two new and entirely different tribes. Or maybe Mogo Mogo will get two new members to make the teams even, like they’ve been doing on Mark Burnett’s other show, The Apprentice. If there is a non-merge mix-up, the most powerful player on the losing tribe will be voted out. That will be either Boston Rob, Lex, or Kathy. Without knowing the makeup of the teams, it’s impossible to determine with logic who of those three will go, so I’m going to draw a name at random. Fate has chosen: Lex.
It’s a tough week to make predictions, because all signs suggest that the tribes will be changed in some way. If they stay as they are, either Mogo Mogo will send Jerri home or Chapera will vote out Alicia. If there’s a merge, the ex-Chaperas will get rid of Lex. And if there’s a different mix up altogether? I’ll go out on a limb and predict Lex again. Am I right? We’ll find out on Thursday nighthttp://www.realitynewsonline.com/cgi-bin/ae.pl?mode=1&article=article4311.art&page=1