At week 2 I had narrowed my Mole choices down to 3 - Craig, Mark & Nicole in that order. I still think (most of the time) that Craig is the Mole, but I can make cases for both Mark and Nicole.
Mark getting so upset about the journals being burned could have been misdirection; he got the final exemption - this could easily have been manipulated so he was the shooter and he would have known which room the exemption was tied to so all he had to do was make sure he hit that target. Early on there were times when he seemed excessively nervous when compared to the others, being the Mole and trying to not get caught or let something slip could cause this.
Nicole's personality wouldn't automatically be thought of as Mole-ish. She is rude, condescending and hard to get along with at best. You think of the Mole as being sneaky, unobtrusive, not wanting to draw attention to themself - totally not Nicole. The producers may have wanted to break the stereotype this season. The 1st episode she alienated herself from the entire group insuring herself the spot as the outcast and receiving the 1st exemption. She has been on the team that brings the least $$$ to the pot regularly. When she and Craig were the only team that added their #'s incorrectly she went back to recount and was still wrong. Did anyone really believe her when she said she was going to throw the quiz last week . . . no, I didn't think so. Just a ploy to add drama.
I think if Mark isn't the Mole he will finish 3rd. Nicole and Craig have been teamed up regularly and if either of them is the Mole the other will surely know it by now and should finish 1st before Mark. If Mark is the Mole . . . if could go either way . . . but I will pick Nicole to finish 1st even though I'd rather Craig win than her.