Author Topic: TAR12 timeline speculation  (Read 53232 times)

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Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #275 on: January 07, 2008, 07:49:31 AM »
My friend was in Osaka this week and they took the bullet train from there to Tokyo to catch their flight. Is that possible for our guys?

The information I found was that it takes roughly 2 and a half to 3 hours to get from Osaka to Tokyo (depending on the line), which would (with a reduced pit stop) get the teams in late evening on the 26th or early morning on the 27th. There's not a shortage of trains available so that won't be a problem. None of them will be able to make the last flight out (BR 2195 or EL 2125 2000 2300 NRT TPE) on the 26th, however with the bunching at the airport, there is sure to be jockeying for direct flights out from Tokyo, of which there are many:

EL 2103 or BR 2181 0920 1150
CI 0107 0940 1230
JL 0641 1000 1235

If the sighting at Taipei 101 is accurate, then Jen/Nate and TKR make the first flight, possibly accompanied by the other teams. Tasks in Taipei take up the rest of the afternoon, and the pit stop is in the evening of the 27th, setting up for flights out on the 28th which apskip has outlined in great detail.

(This is what happens when you try not to fossilize your options at 12:30 in the morning - take a grain of salt with it  :lol: )


Let's alter the checkin times I postulated to earlier, say starting at 7pm for Christina/Ronald, 730pm for Nathan/Jennifer, and 8pm for Donald/Nicholas. I do not believe that World Race Productions is going to mess with the 12 hour checkin to something lower. They have occasionally done so with 24 hour checkins on this race, but I don't see them altering a fundamental part of the game.

That means that Christina/Ronald will not be able to get any flight ealier than about 0830. That ruled out a possible flight combination from KIX to FUK(our friend Fukuoka) and FUK to TPE with the original departure at 0745 and the final arrival at 1205.

The first flight KIX NRT(Tokyo-Narita for the unitiated) is NH2176, which I expect that no team can get. The next is JL3002 which leaves 0825 and arrives 0940. I expect that Christina/Ronald could get that one, but it would be tight. Next is the connection for
Taipei, which  would be EL2109 departing NRT 1150 arriving TPE 1445. It's one of those proofs of the old saw "You can't get there in time from here." I have also checked through Haneda airport, which has early flights from Osaka, but teams could not catch earlier than the 0830 0935 JL106. however, you are then stranded at Haneda and the best flight is back through Osaka and then to Taipei, arriving at 1505. Not too swift and obviously they didn't do that.

Conclusion: the earliest route for that time of day is nonstop Osaka Taipei. I have the times listed in a post above. The only way that could be altered is if teams got to Tokyo-Haneda before 0635 (impossible) or to Narita before 0920(also impossible) sicne the first flight from Osaka(Itami) leaves at 0800 arriving at 0910 with 10 minutes connect time, not anything a racer would chance. A bullet train could get teams to downtown Tokyo and then have the 1+ hour train ride to Narita, but that doesn't change anything(it's a bit worse, actually).



Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #276 on: January 07, 2008, 08:42:10 AM »
My latest timeline:

1. 8th LAX to DUB  EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230 or EI125 1300 to 1345
BA278   LAX to LHR 1535 0945(July 9)  EI375 1050 1210

2. 11 SNN to DUB EI132 0700 0745, conecting with either EI604 DUB AMS 0940 1215 or EI606 DUB AMS 1120 1355

3. 13 AMS to CDG many  Air France choices:  8227 0645 0805; 8223 0725 0850; 8229 0800 0930; 
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF732  1100 to 1635
14 OUA to Bingo by rail; tasks and pitstop
15 REST DAY

4.  16  Bouda Pelegtanga to OUA by road.
 
5. OUA to CDG AF731  2130 0610 +1
17 CDG to AMS or FRA or PRG to VNO arrivals between 1325 and 1410
 
18 REST DAY

6. All of these flights are on July 19th
 Top 3 teams used this route:
 Vilnius Warsaw 0625 0650 LO774
Warsaw Vienna 0740 0905 LO223
Vienna Dubrovnik OS7059 1010 1120

The route that was altered by the late arrival in Prague for TK and Rachel was:

Vilnius Prague 0600 0635 OK871(note: actually 0720 arrival)
Prague Vienna OS704 0840 0945
Vienna Dubrovnik OS731 1315 1440 (Note: not valid per my sources, but OK per Austrian Airlines current schedule)

Don and Nic took:

OK871 0600 0635 VNO PRG (note: actually 0720 arrival)
OK818 1200 1335 PRG ZAG
OU662 1445 1540 ZAG DBV

Azaria/Hendekea probably got something like this through Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Zagreb:

TE460 0730 0905 VNO AMS
LH4673 1040 1150 AMS FRA
OU419 1430 1615 FRA DBV

20 Extended 36 hour pitstop

7. 21 Teams took 4.5 hour buses from 0500 to 0800 to split, then the SNAV ferry at 1700 arriving 2140 to Ancona, then U-drive cars from Ancona at least 212 miles to Empoli(west of Florence).
22 12 hour Pitstop in florence

8. Choice of several flight possiblities from Florence to Mumbai:
23 0650 0855 AF5049 FLR CDG
1030 2350 AF134 CDG BOM

0655 0840 LH4067 FLR FRA
1135 2350 AI126 FRA BOM

0725 0925 KL3135 FLR AMS
1010 2350 NW34 AMS BOM
 
Mumbai tasks on the 24th, then 24 hour pitstop.

9. Since the Mumbai to Hong Kong nonstop AI358, was not flying on a Wednesday, I believe that teams have no choice but to take

25  AI310 BOM ICN 1925 1045+1 (note: this flight stops in Delhi and Hong Kong, so Hong Kong is covered)
26  JL9062 ICN KIX 1220 1400

except for TK and Rachel, who I believe take this combination:
25 9W309 BOM DEL 1855 2045 
26 CA938 DEL PEK 0345 1220
     JL 786 PEK KIX  1400 1750     

26 tasks in Osaka start afternoon and finish that evening, then 12 hour pitstop

27 AM release from Osaka(except for Tk and Rachel who should release about 11am)
KIX TPE via any of these 3 flights:
EG211 1030 1245
CX565 1100 1315
BR2121 1235 1505

27 Taipei 101 sighting early afternoon on Friday, then 36 hour extended pitstop
 
29 TPE to ANC CI12 1445 0750 (July 29 after crossing the International Date Line)

FINISH LINE on July 29 in either GIRDWOOD or ANCHORAGE in 21 Days

Although it is possible for teasm to get to LAX, SAN, or LAS late evening or SEA or PDX early to mid evening,  I do not believe that there will be anything beyond Alaska on this race. Others have a different point of view.
 
« Last Edit: January 12, 2008, 01:47:56 PM by apskip »

Offline Chateau d If

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #277 on: January 07, 2008, 11:56:23 AM »
Quote
You're appeared to be right, CHATEAU. However, the 24 hour pitstop has screwed it up for you. There is a fatal flaw in your total flight route and timing. It is the non-existence of AI358 on Wed. July 25 out of Mumbai. Since it doesn't fly on Wednesdays, there is nothing else Mumbai to Hong Kong that can connect you to CX506 in time for its 1020 departure to Osaka. the only flight teams can use is A310(the one I am showing in my current Timeline), which stops in delhi and HongKong before finishing in Seoul. With the connection from Seoul to KIX arriving at 2pm, why would any team have got offin Hong Kong and taken a flight scheduled to arrive 40 minutes later?

No silly!  I don't have any flight AI358 in my route or timing.   :duno:

I think the three teams used AI310 to get from Mumbai to Hong Kong.  The proof is in these two shots:

The first one shows the teams checking into flight AI310 in Mumbai and the second one shows them standing around talking and wondering about TK & Rachel at the Hong Kong airport.  AI310 arrived at HKG at 7:00 am.  So the shot was taken there between 7:00 am and 9:50 am when CX506 left for Osaka (TWoP has 9:50 instead of 10:20 am).  Teams would not get off flight AI310 in Hong Kong if they were booked on its continuation to Seoul.  That should be strong enough reason for us to conclude that they did not fly to Seoul.

I think you are correct in principal about the route through Seoul being the better choice.  But in fact you are not correct that the teams used that route.  Perhaps the seats were sold out for the Hong Kong to Seoul leg of flight AI310.  So the racers had to patch in a connection at Hong Kong.

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #278 on: January 07, 2008, 12:31:16 PM »
Chateau--what is your take on the weird day-not-day editing this episode?

EW summarizes it here: http://www.ew.com/ew/article/0,,20169735_2,00.html

Quote
And then things got even weirder. Nate and Jen jogged into the pit stop, looking irritated, during the daytime. We cut to Phil watching them approach, in daytime. But then he started to talk, and as he did, we cut back to Nate and Jen, and behind them it was dusk. Then back to Phil, and it was dusk there, too. I replayed it to make sure I wasn't crazy, but sure enough, in the first shot of Nate-Jen, there was an unlit Ferris wheel behind them; in the second shot, the lights were on.

Even weirder, in the daytime shot of Nate and Jen, they looked peeved, but in the dusk shot, they actually looked far calmer. What was going on here? Were they called back later for reshoots? And if so, why? In the second shot, where they didn't look unhappy at all, Phil asked them, ''You guys are bummed right now, right?'' It was like he was reminding them to be their usual pissed selves. Had something happened in between to cheer them up? Were they given an electric vehicle, too? It felt as if the show were edited by the guy who did the Watergate tapes.

As I tried to wrap my mind around this, the emotional coda of TK and Rachel's truncated and tardy leg began. They were more than three hours behind, and we saw them leisurely breeze through all the challenges (poor cleaning man and cab couple, forced to wait hours for them to show up), all the while talking about how much they cared for each other. It had all the hallmarks of a let's bid adieu to this loving couple montage, and yet after all that, it ended up being non-elimination. Why were we given this farewell tour with them if they were sticking around? This episode raised far more questions than it answered, and damn it, I want answers. Electric answers.




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Offline Kogs

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #279 on: January 07, 2008, 12:49:44 PM »
Chateau--what is your take on the weird day-not-day editing this episode?

EW summarizes it here: http://www.ew.com/ew/article/0,,20169735_2,00.html

Quote
And then things got even weirder. Nate and Jen jogged into the pit stop, looking irritated, during the daytime. We cut to Phil watching them approach, in daytime. But then he started to talk, and as he did, we cut back to Nate and Jen, and behind them it was dusk. Then back to Phil, and it was dusk there, too. I replayed it to make sure I wasn't crazy, but sure enough, in the first shot of Nate-Jen, there was an unlit Ferris wheel behind them; in the second shot, the lights were on.

Even weirder, in the daytime shot of Nate and Jen, they looked peeved, but in the dusk shot, they actually looked far calmer. What was going on here? Were they called back later for reshoots? And if so, why? In the second shot, where they didn't look unhappy at all, Phil asked them, ''You guys are bummed right now, right?'' It was like he was reminding them to be their usual pissed selves. Had something happened in between to cheer them up? Were they given an electric vehicle, too? It felt as if the show were edited by the guy who did the Watergate tapes.

As I tried to wrap my mind around this, the emotional coda of TK and Rachel's truncated and tardy leg began. They were more than three hours behind, and we saw them leisurely breeze through all the challenges (poor cleaning man and cab couple, forced to wait hours for them to show up), all the while talking about how much they cared for each other. It had all the hallmarks of a let's bid adieu to this loving couple montage, and yet after all that, it ended up being non-elimination. Why were we given this farewell tour with them if they were sticking around? This episode raised far more questions than it answered, and damn it, I want answers. Electric answers.






peach ill say this, if this leg was orignally an elimination leg and they changed it, its prob because of logistics on the fly, or a glimps into the future. btw they have teased us before with the editing like last night fwiw


Offline Chateau d If

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #280 on: January 07, 2008, 12:52:26 PM »
"Watergate tapes"   :lol3: :lol3:

Welcome to the Amazing Race fella.

Nothing odd about that arrival.  It was a typical mat arrival scene when the sun was setting.  Sure it was lighter out when Jenn & Nate jogged up to the mat (backpacks on).  Then, they re-shoot it for whatever reason.  That happens a lot.  At that time of day (sunset = 7:09 pm) 10 minutes makes a big difference in the amount of sunlight.  It was certainly a re-shoot because the darker part of it had Jenn & Nate sans backpacks.  The movie lights had to come on too.  Maybe the batteries were dead and production had to delay a few minutes to get fresh ones.   :duno:

I agree that the shot shows some mustered composure of some kind in the faces of both racers.  Jenn showed just how much she likes to do forced redos in Dubrovnik.  No poker face there.
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Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #281 on: January 09, 2008, 02:44:18 PM »
After examining many alternatives to see what the public transportation possibilities are to get teams from Osaka to Taipei before noon, here are my conclusions:

It can't be done unless even if the leg 9 finish was a TBC. The last flight that could get them there in time was at 655pm on July 26, right around the time of the first arrival at the pitstop. It is theoretically possible for teams to have taken the Shinkansen from Osaka to Fukuoka to catch CI111 FUK TPE 1010 1140. That Shinkansen would have to have departed Osaka before 8am. We know from ARA2's use of the Shinkansen that it does operate starting from Tokyo before 6am and arriving Fukuoka airport just before 9am. However, that would be a violation of fundamental Amazing Race principles.

The only way that teams could conceivably get there and have the first 3 teams together is a charter flight, which might take a little longer than the 2.25 hours that commercial flights do. To arrive by 1130am, it would have to depart Osaka by 0900. I do not believe that TK & Rachel were on the same flight if it did happen, as that would be a complete undercutting of the principle of honoring pitstop times.

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #282 on: January 09, 2008, 03:49:57 PM »
Quote
The only way that teams could conceivably get there and have the first 3 teams together is a charter flight, which might take a little longer than the 2.25 hours that commercial flights do. To arrive by 1130am, it would have to depart Osaka by 0900. I do not believe that TK & Rachel were on the same flight if it did happen, as that would be a complete undercutting of the principle of honoring pitstop times.

They could manage this. The way I see it happening is that the racers get a clue for someplace in Osaka with hours of operation in the morning (like 6 AM), and then go to the airport to sign up for one of two charter flights (departing at say 8 AM and 930 AM). Depending on the number of tasks, TK/Rachel could make it to Taipei 101 by noon/12:15. However, I doubt it, since there appears to be some airport trickery attempted by Christina, which wouldn't be necessary if the racers were using charter flights.

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #283 on: January 09, 2008, 05:34:32 PM »
Here is something very farfetched but since our backs are against the wall...

I saw something about Osaka FERRIES to Macau. Is there any possibility that teams could get flights from Macau to make it in time? (Have no clue how long the ferry takes.)

Other options? Discount the Taiwan spoiler placing us there around noon?  Is there ANYTHING else we might try--ever since we missed that Dubrovnik ferry I keep saying "think outside the box"--not that it is helping right now!

                     
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Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #284 on: January 09, 2008, 06:11:47 PM »
Peach:

That's some real out of the box thinking. However, the distance from Osaka to Macau is 1500 miles and even the fastest hydrofoil would take more than one day. Also, beyond that the last flight from Macau to Taipei is at 955pm and the first flight from Macau to Taipei is at 1155am arriving at 130pm. There is just no conceivable way this makes sense.


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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #285 on: January 10, 2008, 09:59:31 AM »
Peach:

This one's for you! There is twice a week ferry service from Japan to Taiwan. However, the days of the week (Wednesday and Saturday) are useless for AR12's purposes). Also, the transit time from mainland Japan is about 3 days. Okinawa it is 22 to 34 hours. Nobody on the Amazing Race would want to do these:

Nagoya (Japan mainland) depart: 11:00 Sat   10:30 Wed 
Osaka (Japan mainland) depart:   00:50 Sun   00:50 Thur 
Naha (Okinawa) arrive:                 07:30 Mon  07:30 Fri 
Naha (Okinawa) depart:               20:00 Mon   20:00 Fri 
Keelung (Taiwan) arrive:              18:00 Tues
Kaohsiung (Taiwan) arrive:                              06:00 Sun

Offline Chateau d If

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #286 on: January 10, 2008, 11:43:28 AM »
On the question of Osaka via Seoul or Hon Kong here is a vidcap from the show that shows all the flights that had arrived at Osaka's KIX airport when the three teams passed through.  It gives us that both flights had arrived (JL962=KE5721 and CX506=JL5120).  Had they arrived on the earlier flight from Seoul 40 min ahead of the flight from Hong Kong then why would we see that the Hong Kong flight had already arrived?  Forty minutes is too long to linger around after your flight arrives!


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Offline Chateau d If

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #287 on: January 10, 2008, 11:44:49 AM »
Annnnd:  Just to check one more clue, I looked at the present-day gates of arrival for the two flights.  Maybe the flights pull into different gates at KIX that can be distinguished by what we see in the show.   ;)

It turns out that they do go to different gates!  I snagged the arrival information from the KIX website and it says that Korean Air 5120 from Seoul goes gate S/31.  And that Cathay Pacific 506 from Hong Kong goes to N/11.

So I checked the footage from the show and found this shot of Jenn & Nate at KIX leaving from a large room called "North Arrivals".   :tup:

Do I still have to ask?

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Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #288 on: January 10, 2008, 11:45:51 AM »
I just wanted to add that Jen's birthday is July 28th or 29th?~
All one Racer wants for her birthday is a spot in the Final 3…will her birthday wish be granted?
 
« Last Edit: January 10, 2008, 02:35:37 PM by puddin »

Offline Oliver

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #289 on: January 10, 2008, 03:19:52 PM »
I just wanted to add that Jen's birthday is July 28th or 29th?~
All one Racer wants for her birthday is a spot in the Final 3…will her birthday wish be granted?
 


I'm pretty sure it's 28th.  :(

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #290 on: January 10, 2008, 08:44:52 PM »
I just wanted to add that Jen's birthday is July 28th or 29th?~
All one Racer wants for her birthday is a spot in the Final 3…will her birthday wish be granted?
 


I'm pretty sure it's 28th.  :(
Where are you seeing that Oliver? When I went to her myspace I saw a few Happy B-Days posted on July29th not that they couldn''t have been belated.

Chateau, I totally missed your post above!! Good job!!!

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #291 on: January 10, 2008, 09:04:01 PM »
Thanks apskip! I had no idea but sure didn't want to miss another ferry! Yep--three days seems just a mite long for our guys! But appreciate your checking...

And WOW Chateau! That is some detecting! :happy:
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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #292 on: January 10, 2008, 09:16:55 PM »
I just wanted to add that Jen's birthday is July 28th or 29th?~
All one Racer wants for her birthday is a spot in the Final 3…will her birthday wish be granted?
 


I'm pretty sure it's 28th.  :(
Where are you seeing that Oliver? When I went to her myspace I saw a few Happy B-Days posted on July29th not that they couldn''t have been belated.

Chateau, I totally missed your post above!! Good job!!!

I first remembered reading it somewhere sometime when the race first began, but I can't really remember where so that made me doubt a bit since I could of been half asleep while reading so it might of been something else I read. =(

But then I was on the Survivorsucks board and I saw a user post that the episode 10 hint would refer to Jen since 'Her birthday is July 28th'

Here's the link: http://survivorsucks.yuku.com/topic/23509

 :duno:

Oh, And could I please have the link to Jen's Myspace, Puddin? Thanks!

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #293 on: January 10, 2008, 09:57:36 PM »

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #294 on: January 10, 2008, 10:04:40 PM »
What Myspace does state is that Jenn is a LEO, meaning birthday from July 23 to Aug. 22. That means it could be July 28 or any of 30 other dates.

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #295 on: January 10, 2008, 10:11:37 PM »
I went through Jen's messages from her friends and July 29th is when she received happy B-Day wish's from her friends so they should know when her B-Day so one would think.

Offline tarflyonthewall

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #296 on: January 11, 2008, 02:46:21 AM »
I suppose this is the right place to put this. I used to do the timelines over at Tarflies (under a different username) until I got banned (if you were over there, you would know why). Anyway, I've got a new site starting, and I thought I'd give you the link, since, uh, this is a timeline thread and all.

www.realityarchive.createmyboard.com

Enjoy!

-- David aka tarflyonthewall aka theamazingracer aka raceguy120390 aka Bad Phil Impersonator aka...

Also, there's a season overview there as well which is correctly dated up until the India leg.

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #297 on: January 11, 2008, 08:21:18 AM »
tarflyonthewall,

I have accepted your invitation and checked out your website. I already was familiar with your work at the site which shall not be named. Keep up the good work! RFF is quite friendly toward timelines as well as recaps, which is what I would call what you are doing. We already have two going for AR12 and one for for ARA2, but having one more of each avvailable on your website is a good thing.

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #298 on: January 11, 2008, 10:01:17 AM »
Hi David! I always loved your timeline/recaps so I'm so glad you found a way to continue them! :waves:

and :welcome2:  to RFF!!
« Last Edit: January 11, 2008, 03:25:11 PM by georgiapeach »
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Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #299 on: January 11, 2008, 11:29:59 AM »
Welcome aboard David!  :waves:


 

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