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Offline KingCrimson88

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #50 on: November 21, 2007, 06:08:10 PM »
Funny, maybe, but also completely impractical.

Also, I think the second TBC would be in leg 9. In the past two seasons, the leg before the finale has been an elimination, which is why I think leg 10 will start with 4 teams and someone will be eliminated in the end. Of course, with only 2 TBC's this season, it's really hard to tell how they're going to space them out.



Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #51 on: November 22, 2007, 11:13:11 AM »
apskips, which post is your master timeline? I'd like to insert the link into the spoilers thread post 1.

thanks in advance.

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Offline mswood

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #52 on: November 22, 2007, 12:33:05 PM »
Since I hope that there were 7 teams in Croatia, it's probably just my biased opinion to say that I would agree that the next leg is a TBC. I doubt TAR would try to squeeze in a flight to leave at night. They usually always leave in the day. Knowing that there is a U-Turn on this leg, replacing a yeild, it sort of supports a TBC. When there was a yeild it was usually a NEL.

Carry On...
Thats not true north, take for instance season 9, Lake & Michelle yielded the D's and they were eliminated. True Eric & Daniele were saved by the NEL not TBC season 11, but the second time around they were yielded by The Chas and it was the Cha's that were eliminated that episode...thats just a few examples.

On the isssue of Yields and when their isn't a built in life line.

In the past lifelines for the YIeld have included severe bunching (4 hours to over half a day), non elimination legs, and TBC legs.

I won't talk about season 5 because they were in almost every episode (except the finale).

But there is a bit of a pattern, to most of the two yields.

Season 6. 

1st yield-no lifeline in any form.  Just one tasks between yield and elimination point.
2nd yield-A non elimination leg.

Season 7. 
1st Yield ?
2cd Yield.  no lifeline in any form just one task separates yield and elimination point.

Season 8
1st yield-no lifeline in any form.  Just one task between yield and elimination point (Sorry Tammy).
2nd Yield-A non elimination leg

Season 9
1st yield-no lifeline in any form just one task separates yield and elimination point. (only team yielded that actually gets eliminated.
2cd Yield-non elimination leg

Season 10
1st yield (while not shown was in one of the Vietnam legs.  No lifeline.  No idea how many tasks between yield and elimination point.
2nd yield-non elimination leg

All Stars
1st Yield-no lifeline in any form though two tasks separate yield and elimination point.
2nd Yield-non elimination leg.

So there is a bit of a pattern.  Typically the first Yield is an elimination leg.  And its never been with a TBC leg.

Now with season 10 and All Stars, they have introduced a new twist that can negatively impact a teams performance.  But in both instances it was on elimination legs.

So if anything, (and if the Yield is being fully replaced, as opposed to just adding more twists), then it would strongly imply that the first use of a tool to hold back teams will be an elimination leg.

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #53 on: November 22, 2007, 02:45:35 PM »
What mswood said  :ya3: :roses:

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #54 on: November 22, 2007, 03:40:00 PM »
puddin, my Master Timeline shifts from time to time. It is currently found in post #28 on this thread and is up-to-date as of right now in my thinking(because I have been going back and modifying it). I don't know where teams are going in Burkina Faso for ep. 4, but I do know how and when they are leaving Burkina Faso. From there, everything flows logically.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2007, 03:43:24 PM by apskip »


Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #55 on: November 22, 2007, 04:02:13 PM »
What if I  copy it and paste it into the first post if this thread apskips? You can update it there and it will be easy to find with a :bump now and then to let us know that its been modified.

Offline mswood

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #56 on: November 22, 2007, 04:17:21 PM »
puddin, my Master Timeline shifts from time to time. It is currently found in post #28 on this thread and is up-to-date as of right now in my thinking(because I have been going back and modifying it). I don't know where teams are going in Burkina Faso for ep. 4, but I do know how and when they are leaving Burkina Faso. From there, everything flows logically.
Apskip, just a shout of thanks.  While things (to some degree) can change.  I love reading these.  Especially o see how close things actually work out.

Offline Chateau d If

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #57 on: November 22, 2007, 11:51:35 PM »
Quote
Season 7.
1st Yield ?

Wasn't their a Yield right after the teams passed over the Andes into Argentina?   ???  It was right before they had a Detour for Bikes or Rafts.  No team used it.
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Offline mswood

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #58 on: November 23, 2007, 09:49:43 AM »
Thanks Chateau.  Its the one, I couldn't remember and with cooking and family I didn't bother to check.  But I do think you are right.  In which case that was also an elimination leg.

Offline Chateau d If

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #59 on: November 23, 2007, 12:56:00 PM »
Elimination

as in from the stomach!   :barf    :barf    :barf
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #60 on: November 26, 2007, 01:25:12 PM »
Okay--I got worried about this last week:
We need to do some reevaluating here...

July 13th to Ouagadougou
July 14th leg 1 pitstop
July 15th leg 2 with Pitstop? or TBC?? till AM of 16th
July 16th/17th maybe Florence
 
so then now we need to consider if Lithuania could precede Croatia, IMO.

Our source feels that from what TK/Rachael told her that teams were coming directly from the airport when they arrived in Dubrovnik on July 19th...

Then we talked about it more in this post

Quote
And here is where I get confused --we believe teams arr Dubrovnik on 7/19 direct from the airport. So if they arr Florence 7/16 there seem to be too many days--even if they arr 7/17 you would think they do tasks 7/17 and are ready to go wherever by 7/18. So either they need a 36 hour Pitstop in Florence (where you would think that they would LEAST want to hang around due to the numbers of tourists) --or they go somewhere else either instead of or in addition to Florence. What if teams go first to Lithuania first from BF? arr there 7/17--tasks 7/17 with Pitstop dep 7/18 to Florence arr 7/18 tasks + pitstop dep for Dubrovnik AM 7/19.

I got talked out of it here  because there was not enought time to fit in Florence:

I have had some PM dialogue with Peach on the subject of whether a Africa to  Vilnius to Florence to Dubrovnik routing or Africa to Florence to Vilnius to Dubrovnik routing can make sense. The answer to both questions is NO. Here's why for the first question. The same logic was worked out for the second case and it proved even less close on timing:

1. AF735 arrives CDG 610am July 17
2. First reasonable connection is at 800am on AF1340 to AMS, connecting there with TE461 to VNO arriving at 1325.
3. Teams then have all of afternoon and evening of July 17 in Vilnius to complete tasks.
4. Earliest possible departure would be at maybe 730am on July 18 to Florence. TE470 departs VNO 0735 to CDG, connecting to AF5036 arriving FLR 1405.
5. Teams have the rest of the afternoon and evening to do tasks in Florence. It doesn't  matter whether it is a TBC or pitstop. They are not going to DBV until tasks are done. There is no way that the first group can arrive at 1405 and depart at 1725 even though with a TBC the second or third groups could indeed make it. The precise times are as shown in my master TIMELINE post. NOTE: the reason the first group has to depart by 1725 is that is the latest time they can connect through Milan and Zagreb arriving at 1030 on July 19, which corresponds well with actual observation of when they got to town

I have to conclude that there can be no Africa to Vilnius to Florence routing because there just isn't sufficient time. That means there will be an extended pit stop somewhere, I would guess Florence rather than Burkina Faso. I would also guess that the separation of teams has to occur somewhere and it won't be coming out of Africa with only one flight each 24 hours. The tasks in Florence have to involve major opportunities to get ahead and behind, like FAST FORWARD and UTURN and SPEED BUMP.


So okay..

BUT now we KNOW we go Ouag to CDG to Vilnius (Lithuania) arr CDG 7/17 AM about 6:10 AND we KNOW we are in Dubrovnik on 7/19---HOW can we make this fit now??

7/17 arr CDG at 6:10 AM --I know CDG and I agree that it would be almost impossible to make a 7:20 flight so here are more from apskip:

egnsixteen, yes there are several later CDG to FLR flights. I picked the one for 1 hour 10 minute connect time recognizing that it might be an issue. Here are the others:

AF 5040 1000 1205
AF 5036 1205 1405
AF 5042 1320 1520
AF 5044 1545 1740
AF 5048 1855 1050
 
and lots more from me:   :lol:


This puts us into Vilnius on 7/17 mid to late afternoon--get rental car--get to Rumsiskes- (not far--see MAPS!) and doing tasks on late afternoon which fits with Chateau's Time shot of Ron/Christina doing stilts between 8 and 8:30 PM HERE.

We are also pretty darn sure that they will be doing tasks at the Trakai water castle as well so suppose they keep on racing but find Hours of Op in Trakai taking tasks to first thing in the AM 7/18  and PITSTOP there.

That lets teams leave AM early for Dubrovnik on 7/19.  It does NOT explain why TK/Rachel "missed a flight by 5 minutes" unless they have trouble on the way to the airport...

The big glaring absence?? Where is Florence?? Well, if it is going to come, it has to come AFTER Croatia to make this fit.

Apskip and I did not look at that as an option IIRC so we will need to pull some flights to see if this can work this way. How DARE he go on a vacation this week? :lol3:

Trains seem unlikely to work given the time constraints.

The good news is if this is the scenario:

Then we have an elim and are down to 6 teams for Dubrovnik just as we expect.

Comments? Ideas? We  need everyone's input on this :please:!!


THINGS THAT NEED CHECKING:

1) Flights Vilnius to Dubrovnik AM 7/19 (we would like three so as to explain the way teams are bunched in Dubrovnik--one to arr by 10 or so--one mid afternoon--one late afternoon...)
  and this is all I have found which is NOT enough and it is too late!



2) Flights Dubrovnik to Florence AM 7/20
« Last Edit: November 26, 2007, 01:33:11 PM by georgiapeach »
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Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #61 on: November 26, 2007, 01:32:18 PM »
If they go to Vilnius/Trakai, remember these are not introflash's they are from our photo source, then why can't say maybe the Roadblock first in Vilnius? then Rumsiskes/detours?


Quote
This puts us into Vilnius on 7/17 mid to late afternoon--get rental car--get to Rumsiskes- (not far--see MAPS!) and doing tasks on late afternoon which fits with Chateau's Time shot of Ron/Christina doing stilts between 8 and 8:30 PM HERE.

We are also pretty darn sure that they will be doing tasks at the Trakai water castle as well so suppose they keep on racing but find Hours of Op in Trakai taking tasks to first thing in the AM 7/18  and PITSTOP there.

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #62 on: November 26, 2007, 01:39:34 PM »
If you exclude Trakai that is possible for sure (I just REALLY want them to go there!)

But I don't think they can get to Trakai --do a task--and then to Rumsiskes in time...

If we say they don't go there--and they finish and the pitstop is 7/17 we still can't get in out and of Florence in time...so what to they do on 7/18? Extended pitstop? Go to Split? I don't know?! :pull
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Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #63 on: November 26, 2007, 01:40:36 PM »
Quote
This puts us into Vilnius on 7/17 mid to late afternoon--get rental car--get to Rumsiskes- (not far--see MAPS!) and doing tasks on late afternoon which fits with Chateau's Time shot of Ron/Christina doing stilts between 8 and 8:30 PM HERE.

We are also pretty darn sure that they will be doing tasks at the Trakai water castle as well so suppose they keep on racing but find Hours of Op in Trakai taking tasks to first thing in the AM 7/18  and PITSTOP there.

I'm guessing that if anything is done in Vilnius/Trakai it would be early on.

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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #64 on: November 26, 2007, 01:43:48 PM »
But it can't be early!

The VERY earliest they can arrive is by 1:25 and that is only if they have divine intervention at CDG otherwise we are looking at airport arrivals of  between 2 to 6 PM.
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Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #65 on: November 26, 2007, 01:46:09 PM »
And so we wait for evidence.

Offline TARAsia Fan

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #66 on: November 26, 2007, 01:46:25 PM »
*Looks for divine intervention*  :lol: :lol: :lol:
Just here to visit.

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #67 on: November 26, 2007, 01:49:19 PM »
*Looks for divine intervention*  :lol: :lol: :lol:

Just don't look for it in CDG airport! :lol3:
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Offline patlini

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #68 on: November 26, 2007, 02:59:30 PM »
could they fly to Kuanas instead?

Offline patlini

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #69 on: November 26, 2007, 03:03:25 PM »
sorry no

but it could be a way out via Frankfurt
http://www.kaunasair.lt/index.php?lang=2&m=2&p=220


Offline mswood

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #70 on: November 26, 2007, 03:11:49 PM »
Okay stupid question.  Why do we believe that tasks are done on the 15th for this current leg (episode 4)?

I think they actually did tasks on the 14th (even with odd Pit Stop time).

Unless I have been wrong on my reports.  Then we should have arrived in Burkina Faso on the 12th.  Got to Bingo on the 13th, did tasks that day.  Pit Stop.  Next day (the 14th) tasks of episode #4, then a Pit Stop, with teams being able to leave the 15th (unless teams need to take an extended Pit Stop due to lack of flights).  Airwise shows flights ont eh 15th to CDG.

So what am I missing.


Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #71 on: November 26, 2007, 03:17:16 PM »
Teams flew to BF on Fri 13th for sure per the missionaries...

http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,13942.msg240280.html#msg240280

missionary link: http://www.ergatai.com/wp/?p=269
« Last Edit: November 26, 2007, 03:20:39 PM by georgiapeach »
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Offline mswood

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #72 on: November 26, 2007, 03:21:13 PM »
Teams flew to BF on Fri 13th for sure per the missionaries...

http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,13942.msg240280.html#msg240280

missionary link:http://www.ergatai.com/wp/?p=269

Damn it.

Hell even apskip was working off the flight to BF on the 12th.

If they did fly the 13th, then where did we get an extended Pit Stop?

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #73 on: November 26, 2007, 03:22:27 PM »
Netherlands... :lol:

Don't feel bad--I had to hit Apskip with the prayer letter too. And the only way the flight on 7/13 worked was for Netherlands to be 36 hours...
« Last Edit: November 26, 2007, 03:26:57 PM by georgiapeach »
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Offline mswood

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #74 on: November 26, 2007, 03:26:42 PM »

Netherlands... :lol:
(:;)Oh, shut up..... :pull

But seriously when we see Kynt and Vyxsin buy their tickets (there is a screen shot of the terminal the ticket agent is using) and it shows the day of the 12th (its what I used to verify the date).  So if that was accurate then how did it take them so long to get to BF?


 

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