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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #25 on: November 18, 2007, 09:37:45 PM »
  :bump   for apskip's latest edit above...
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #26 on: November 18, 2007, 10:16:37 PM »
We need to do some reevaluating here...

July 13th to Ouagadougou
July 14th leg 1 pitstop
July 15th leg 2 with Pitstop? or TBC?? till AM of 16th
July 16th/17th maybe Florence
 
so then now we need to consider if Lithuania could precede Croatia, IMO.

Our source feels that from what TK/Rachael told her that teams were coming directly from the airport when they arrived in Dubrovnik on July 19th...
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

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Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #27 on: November 18, 2007, 10:20:29 PM »
Maybe they go to India before Croatia and after Africa  :angel: ?

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #28 on: November 19, 2007, 08:25:22 AM »
Changes resulting from episode 3 have been incorporated into this latest Timeline:

1. 8th LAX to DUB  EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230 or EI125 1300 to 1345 OR BA278 LAX to LHR 1535 0945(July 9)  EI375 1050 1210

2. 11 SNN to DUB EI132 0700 0745, conecting with either EI604 DUB AMS 0940 1215 or EI606 DUB AMS 1120 1355
OR SNN LHR EI372 0845 1005 connecting with BA434 LHR AMS 1135 1350

3. 13 AMS to CDG many  Air France choices:  8227 0645 0805; 8223 0725 0850; 8229 0800 0930; 1141 0850 1005; 1241 0930 1045; 8233 1210 1330; 1641 1340 1455
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF732  1100 to 1635
14 OUA to Bingo by rail; tasks and pitstop

4. 14 or 15 Bingo to OUA by road.
either fly OUA ABJ 2J 322 0800 0930 or VU815  1440 1610
or fly OUA BKO 2J 338 1345 1505
or something within Burkina Faso
for all options, end in TBC since it didn't happen for leg 3

15 OUA to CDG AF731  2130 0610 +1

5. 16 CDG to FLR AF5038 0720 0915 or one of 5 later flights CDG FLR
 

6. 18 REST DAY
There is newly revived thinking that says that the arrival must be on July 19. If so, then here are 3 different ways to get teams there:

18 FLR MXP AZ1695 1725 1815
MXP ZAG AZ544 2100 2230, with overnight in the Zagreb airport area, then
19 ZAG DVB OU660 0930 1025

19 FLR VIE OS536  0700 0930
VIE DBV OS721 1315 1425

19 FLR FRA LH4067  0655 0840
FRA ZAG  OU417  0930 1050
ZAG DBV OU662  1445 1540
This corresponds better with the sighted arrival of the several teams.


7. 20 DBV to VNO OU418 0700 0900 LH 3252 1100 1400  OR X3 418 0945 1145 BT224 1325 1630

8. 22 VNO to FRA TE420 1130 1300
FRA DEL LH760 1345 1225 +1
23 DEL JDH IC471 1310 1400  (Note: due to the tightness of this, I expect backup with a charter flight)
Jodhpur to Jaisalmer 3 hours minimum by road

9. 24 Jaisalmer to Jodhpur leave by noon for 3 hours minimum by road
IC472 JDH DEL 1825 1920
25 AI314 DEL KIX 2315 1235+1

10. Osaka tasks afternoon and evening of 25th
 
11. 26 KIX TPE EG211 1035 1220   or  CX565 1115 1310
Taipei 101 sighting early afternoon on Friday, then leg in Taipei with TBC to avoid having to go below 3 teams
 28 TPE to ANC CI11 0345 0630 (July 28 after crossing the International Date Line)
FINISH LINE on July 29 in either GIRDWOOD or ANCHORAGE in 21 Days

« Last Edit: November 20, 2007, 02:26:34 PM by apskip »

Offline egnsixteen

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #29 on: November 19, 2007, 12:34:37 PM »
Long time lurker here, finally decided to join in. Apskip, very good job with the itinerary. Do you know if theres another flight from CDG to Florence later that morning? The 1 hour connection in CDG is not enough (based from my experience). The line  in the customs for non-EU passport holders are typically crowded  at CDG not to mention that the flights from CDG to Florence uses small planes so they are not directly on the gates, instead the racers needs to take a bus to get to their plane (sitting somewhere on the tarmac). its pretty ridiculous for a one hour connection. I have a feeling some teams might not make it. Also, I'm surprised that theres not a lot of spoilers in Florence. The few days I spent there, I met so many Americans (especially students who are doing study abroad there). One last thing, I have a feeling the a clue box will be located in Piazza de Michaelangelo, its in the southern bank of the river, on a hill and it has a beautiful vista of the entire city. It is also fairly close to the beautiful Boboli gardens behind Palazo Pitti ( a great site for a Detour or a Roadblock).


Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #30 on: November 19, 2007, 02:21:22 PM »
egnsixteen, yes there are several later CDG to FLR flights. I picked the one for 1 hour 10 minute connect time recognizing that it might be an issue. Here are the others:

AF 5040 1000 1205
AF 5036 1205 1405
AF 5042 1320 1520
AF 5044 1545 1740
AF 5048 1855 1050

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #31 on: November 19, 2007, 02:45:36 PM »
I hat CDG! and agrre about connecting difficulties there--they aren't easy!

Okay--puddin may have just placed teams in Bobo--

So would all flights out of there be via Ouagadougou--or are there any direct flights to Europe straight from Bobo?  And of course they could train it back to O--just checking!
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #32 on: November 19, 2007, 03:52:48 PM »
Bobo Dioulasso is a regional airport only. It has no flights to Europe. On July 16, it is not listed as having any flights to OUA nor is next July 14, 2008 listed as having any. I instinctively do not trust that information because it doesn't make sense.  However, right now in November there is a Monday flight from BOY to OUA:

BOBO DIOULASSO (BOY)
13:00 OUAGADOUGOU (OUA)
14:00 2J 102

Unfortunately, this is not really useful since teams will complete a 12 hour pitstop late evening of July 14. They could reach Bobo Dioulasso the morning of July 15(Sunday) and do tasks, resulting in a TBC ending and return to OUA that afternoon or evening for the 2340 flight back to Paris.

As an aside, Peach, my reading of the train lines does not show that Bingo and Bobo Dioulasso are on the same line. Bingo is on a short spur to the northwest while Bobo Dioulasso is the main stop on the main line west and a little south.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2007, 04:32:16 PM by apskip »

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #33 on: November 19, 2007, 03:53:19 PM »
I'm not good at this but whatever   :snakes: :inocent: :hides :rfth:~

Air Burkina Popular Flights  :lol:

Bobo Dioulasso to Ouagadougou
Air Burkina has 1 daily flights from Bobo Dioulasso to Ouagadougou, for a total of 34 seats daily.


Bobo Dioulasso to Abidjan
Air Burkina has 1 daily flights from Bobo Dioulasso to Abidjan, for a total of 34 seats daily.



Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #34 on: November 19, 2007, 04:27:51 PM »
puddin, it can be a bit trickier than you think. For example, you say that BOY has a flight to ABJ. I say not on Sundays it doesn't and that's the only day that matters for the next leg since July 15 was a Sunday. Teams cannot get to BoboDioulasso before July 15 no matter how hard they try after a 12 hour pitstop. Other sources indicate that there was no such flight on July 15 and Air Burkina says there son't be one on July 13, 2008(the equivalent Monday), but the main determinant is Air Burkina's schedules for the week from today, which shows one flight between BOY and ABJ only on Friday. I went on to discover the following gems from the Air Burkina schedule, which I had found an hour ago for the first time but had not really exploited most of what is there:

It flies BOY OUA on Monday, Friday, and Saturday. Since teams are likely to return to OUA same day on July 15, it does not look like they will be using a flight.
It flies from BOY to Bamako, Lome and Niamey on Saturdays via Ouagadougou.
If flies to Paris-Orly from OUA on Saturday, but this is not going to be useful.


Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #35 on: November 19, 2007, 07:24:08 PM »
So something like this? Speculating there are 6 teams in Croatia not 7.

Just thinking outloud


EP1: 11/4/07 LA-Ireland  11 teams to start -- Ari/Staella eliminated -- 10 teams left

EP2: 11/11/07 Ireland to The Netherlands 10 teams to start- Pat & Kate elim'ed--9 teams left

EP3: 11/18/07 Netherlands to Africa 9 teams to start --Sisters elim'ed --8 teams left

EP4: 11/25/07 Africa to Africa 8 teams to start --1 elim -- 7 teams left

EP5: 12/2/07 Africa to Italy?  7 teams to start - 1 elim - 6 teams left

EP6: 12/9/07 Italy to Croatia? 6 teams left - 1 elim - 5 teams left

EP7: 12/23/07 Croatia to Lithuania? 5 teams to start -- 1 elim or TBC(?) --5 or 4 teams left

EP8: 12/30/07 Lithuania to India? 5 or 4 teams to start --1 elim or TBC (?) 5 or 4 teams left

EP9: 1/6/08 India to Japan 4 teams to start --1 elim-- 3 teams left

EP10: 1/13/08 Japan to Taiwan --final 3 TBC

EP11: 1/20/08 Taiwan to Alaska Final 3 --winner

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #36 on: November 19, 2007, 09:25:05 PM »
puddin, it could happen the way you have proposed it. The TBC legs could fall anywhere in the Timeline. However, look at the timing in the upcoming leg. Teams will be arriving in Bobo Dioulasso or wherever on the morning of July 15. If they do tasks and do a 12 hour pitstop, then they will not be able to leave on the 1140pm flight from OUA to CDG. If it is a TBC, then there will be no diffculty in them getting out that night. This is the most compelling argument for having the TBC leg next.

Offline north09

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #37 on: November 20, 2007, 01:36:00 PM »
Since I hope that there were 7 teams in Croatia, it's probably just my biased opinion to say that I would agree that the next leg is a TBC. I doubt TAR would try to squeeze in a flight to leave at night. They usually always leave in the day. Knowing that there is a U-Turn on this leg, replacing a yeild, it sort of supports a TBC. When there was a yeild it was usually a NEL.

Carry On...

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #38 on: November 20, 2007, 02:10:22 PM »
north09, your worst doubts are about to come true. The only direct flight between OUA and CDG, AirFrance 731, on July 15 leaves at 2130. The only nonstop flight between OUA and CDG, Air France 735, on July 16 leaves at 2340. the both get in at 0610 next day, which means that it is essentially the same routing except for the one stop AF731 makes. All other connecting flights leave between 930pm and 340am and are essentially dominated by the schedules of the direct or nonstop flights.

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #39 on: November 20, 2007, 02:31:28 PM »
Since I hope that there were 7 teams in Croatia, it's probably just my biased opinion to say that I would agree that the next leg is a TBC. I doubt TAR would try to squeeze in a flight to leave at night. They usually always leave in the day. Knowing that there is a U-Turn on this leg, replacing a yeild, it sort of supports a TBC. When there was a yeild it was usually a NEL.

Carry On...
Thats not true north, take for instance season 9, Lake & Michelle yielded the D's and they were eliminated. True Eric & Daniele were saved by the NEL not TBC season 11, but the second time around they were yielded by The Chas and it was the Cha's that were eliminated that episode...thats just a few examples.

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Offline north09

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #40 on: November 20, 2007, 05:32:48 PM »
lol forgot about those

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #41 on: November 21, 2007, 11:14:17 AM »
okay--this is driving me nuts. We have been speculating that Florence comes next because it makes logistical sense. But what if things don't go that way? And this is why I ask...

If you take the timeline and substitute in the actual filming dates that we are sure of (instead of episode airing dates)--then things get complicated.

Snagging puddin's list here:
 


EP1: 11/4/07 LA-Ireland  11 teams to start -- Ari/Staella eliminated -- 10 teams left Dep LA July 8--arr Ireland 7/9-spend night --tasks/Pitstop7/10 dep 7/11 :yes:

EP2: 11/11/07 Ireland to The Netherlands 10 teams to start- Pat & Kate elim'ed--9 teams left dep Ireland 7/11, arr Amst 7/11 tasks+36 hour Pitstop:yes:

EP3: 11/18/07 Netherlands to Africa 9 teams to start --Sisters elim'ed --8 teams left  Depart via CDG on Fri 7/13, arr Ouagadougou 5PM on 7/13, camp at/near train station overnight, do tasks Sat 7/14, spend night at Bingo pitstop- :yes:

EP4: 11/25/07 Africa to Africa 8 teams to start --1 elim -- 7 teams left  Sun 7/15 tasks--now either this is a TBC on 7/15 so they can catch the evening 7/15 flight out OR it is an elim and teams depart 7/16. And here is where I get confused --we believe teams arr Dubrovnik on 7/19 direct from the airport. So if they arr Florence 7/16 there seem to be too many days--even if they arr 7/17 you would think they do tasks 7/17 and are ready to go wherever by 7/18. So either they need a 36 hour Pitstop in Florence (where you would think that they would LEAST want to hang around due to the numbers of tourists) --or they go somewhere else either instead of or in addition to Florence. What if teams go first to Lithuania first from BF? arr there 7/17--tasks 7/17 with Pitstop dep 7/18 to Florence arr 7/18 tasks + pitstop dep for Dubrovnik AM 7/19.
So far we know they have lots to do in Lithuania so makes sense to give them the time there. But somewhere there has to be a TBC instead of a Pitstop or this way we lose too many teams before Dubrovnik. OR Lithuania could be another 36 hour Pitstop and Florence could FOLLOW Dubrovnik. Apskip will have to tell us what does and doesn't work here, but I am concerned that BF--Florence--Dubrovnik isn't working.  And it gets equally confusing when we put this onwards--but that is for another post!


EP5: 12/2/07 Africa to Italy?  7 teams to start - 1 elim - 6 teams left   or to Lithuania??

EP6: 12/9/07 Italy to Croatia? 6 teams left - 1 elim - 5 teams left Or to Italy/TBC? still 6 teams  OR to Dubrovnik

EP7: 12/23/07 Croatia to Lithuania? 5 teams to start -- 1 elim or TBC(?) --5 or 4 teams left OR Dubrovnik 6 to start one elim--down to five--OR to Italy

EP8: 12/30/07 Lithuania to India? 5 or 4 teams to start --1 elim or TBC (?) 5 or 4 teams left

EP9: 1/6/08 India to Japan 4 teams to start --1 elim-- 3 teams left

EP10: 1/13/08 Japan to Taiwan --final 3 TBC

EP11: 1/20/08 Taiwan to Alaska Final 3 --winner

"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #42 on: November 21, 2007, 11:19:50 AM »
I thought you were all saying Florence next because of the "burned bridges" title, you know bridges = Florence  :lol:

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #43 on: November 21, 2007, 11:26:58 AM »
No silly---Ponte Vecchio survived the Nazi's --guess it can survive TAR! And this has to be the Blondes commenting on whatever they did in Ep 4, right?

Apskip has some good ideas on this--I'll let him comment.
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #44 on: November 21, 2007, 11:34:37 AM »
Hey it wasn't me, thats why I locked that thread so that we didn't have 3 pages of Florence stuff before we even knew if it is indeed Florence  :lol:



Burned bridges - in Florence?
Yes indeed. The Ponte Vecchio in Florence is world famous. With the Arno River, Florence has several bridges.

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #45 on: November 21, 2007, 12:44:42 PM »
How about this and yes its speculation  :angel:  :treadmill

EP4: Africa~Africa ELIM 7 left
EP5: Africa~India TBC *monsoon*
EP6: India~India ELIM 6 left
EP7: India~Croatia ELIM 5 left
EP8: Croatia~Italy Elim 4 left
EP9: Italy~ Lithuania ELIM 3 left
EP10: Lithuania~ Japan ~ Taiwan TBC 3 left
EP11: Taiwan~ Alaska ~winner

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #46 on: November 21, 2007, 03:09:27 PM »
I have had some PM dialogue with Peach on the subject of whether a Africa to  Vilnius to Florence to Dubrovnik routing or Africa to Florence to Vilnius to Dubrovnik routing can make sense. The answer to both questions is NO. Here's why for the first question. The same logic was worked out for the second case and it proved even less close on timing:

1. AF735 arrives CDG 610am July 17
2. First reasonable connection is at 800am on AF1340 to AMS, connecting there with TE461 to VNO arriving at 1325.
3. Teams then have all of afternoon and evening of July 17 in Vilnius to complete tasks.
4. Earliest possible departure would be at maybe 730am on July 18 to Florence. TE470 departs VNO 0735 to CDG, connecting to AF5036 arriving FLR 1405.
5. Teams have the rest of the afternoon and evening to do tasks in Florence. It doesn't  matter whether it is a TBC or pitstop. They are not going to DBV until tasks are done. There is no way that the first group can arrive at 1405 and depart at 1725 even though with a TBC the second or third groups could indeed make it. The precise times are as shown in my master TIMELINE post. NOTE: the reason the first group has to depart by 1725 is that is the latest time they can connect through Milan and Zagreb arriving at 1030 on July 19, which corresponds well with actual observation of when they got to town

I have to conclude that there can be no Africa to Vilnius to Florence routing because there just isn't sufficient time. That means there will be an extended pit stop somewhere, I would guess Florence rather than Burkina Faso. I would also guess that the separation of teams has to occur somewhere and it won't be coming out of Africa with only one flight each 24 hours. The tasks in Florence have to involve major opportunities to get ahead and behind, like FAST FORWARD and UTURN and SPEED BUMP.

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #47 on: November 21, 2007, 03:53:21 PM »
puddin stated the following speculative route above:   

EP4: Africa~Africa ELIM 7 left
EP5: Africa~India TBC *monsoon*
EP6: India~India ELIM 6 left
EP7: India~Croatia ELIM 5 left
EP8: Croatia~Italy Elim 4 left
EP9: Italy~ Lithuania ELIM 3 left
EP10: Lithuania~ Japan ~ Taiwan TBC 3 left
EP11: Taiwan~ Alaska ~winner


puddin, I know that speculation should not draw a lot of comment. However, I couldn't resist repeating my comments from the Ep. 4 thread, post #4:   

"The optimum flights to Delhi India(gateway to Jaisalmer and a lot of other places in India) are via Paris-Charles-DeGaulle airport coming from West African places such as Ouagadougou or Niamey or several other West African capital cities because that is the way the air routes were set up. It makes no sense to fly to India and then return to Europe to catch Florence, Dubrovnik and Vilnius when you are right there in Europe for that connection.

I think people who are reading Elise Doganieri's statement Holland to India to Croatia literally are making a mistake."

Another reason that specualtive routing is not realistic is that it takes almost 2 days extra to fly to India and back to Europe and then go to Japan. AR12 just doesn't have that much slack time.


Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #48 on: November 21, 2007, 04:31:31 PM »
Many thanks to Apskip into looking into that. The main reason we are wobbling about how/when teams arrive in Dubrovnik is because of the personal information obtained by our source.

After getting to talk briefly with TK/Rachel, she understood them to say that the reason they were behind in Dubrovnik is that they had missed a flight connection by 5 minutes--the flight that the first 3 teams were on. And add in Azaria/Hendekea arriving at the cluebox so much later per Chateau time--and we are speculating on needing three flights. One for the first 3 arr before noonish, one arr early-mid afternoon and one arr later afternoon.  That way we can explain the separation in time between the teams we see.

So per apskip's flight research, that can not happen by starting out from Lithuania, and he shows that there does not appear to be enough time to squeeze in Florence after Lithuania and before Dubrovnik.

So that being said, I'm going with this for now:

RED =puddin's previous summary    BLUE= my additions


EP1: 11/4/07 LA-Ireland  11 teams to start -- Ari/Staella eliminated -- 10 teams left Dep LA July 8--arr Ireland 7/9-spend night --tasks/Pitstop7/10 dep 7/11 :yes:

EP2: 11/11/07 Ireland to The Netherlands 10 teams to start- Pat & Kate elim'ed--9 teams left dep Ireland 7/11, arr Amst 7/11 tasks+36 hour Pitstop:yes:

EP3: 11/18/07 Netherlands to Africa 9 teams to start --Sisters elim'ed --8 teams left  Depart via CDG on Fri 7/13, arr Ouagadougou 5PM on 7/13, camp at/near train station overnight, do tasks Sat 7/14,  Bingo pitstop- :yes:

EP4: 11/25/07 Africa to Africa 8 teams to start --1 elim -- 7 teams left  Sun 7/15 tasks--  Pitstop

EP5: 12/2/07 Africa to Italy?  7 teams to start - 1 elim - 6 teams left   --fly out Mon 7/16 and arr FLorence 7/17 Tues AM, tasks and Pitstop needs to be 36 hours, 

EP6: 12/9/07 Italy to Croatia? 6 teams to start - 1 elim - 5 teams left dep Florence 7/19 arr 7/19 Dubrovnik *confirmed date*--teams seen doing tasks 7/19-- Pitstop

EP7: 12/23/07 Croatia to Lithuania? 5 teams to start -- 1 elim or TBC(?) --5 or 4 teams left
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
not addressing the rest of this yet:
EP8: 12/30/07 Lithuania to India? 5 or 4 teams to start --1 elim or TBC (?) 5 or 4 teams left

EP9: 1/6/08 India to Japan 4 teams to start --1 elim-- 3 teams left

EP10: 1/13/08 Japan to Taiwan --final 3 TBC

EP11: 1/20/08 Taiwan to Alaska Final 3 --winner


So we are putting a lot of faith in the keen eye of our source, but for now it appears to be our best guess. And that means only 6 teams in Dubrovnik, and excludes the possibility of a seventh.
So if she is also right about the F/F team, then we have our next 2 elims.

Unless TPTB throw a TBC in there somehow--in which case  :pull I give up! :lol3:
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #49 on: November 21, 2007, 05:53:10 PM »
I think it would be funny if they did go to India after Africa :carryon:


 

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