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Offline mswood

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #250 on: January 06, 2008, 03:06:09 PM »
Yeah, I know.

Season 1:  Alaska then New York (for almost nothing)
Season 2:  Alaska then SF for the best ending ever.
Season 3:  Hawaii to Seattle for boo hiss Flo, yeah Zack.
Season 4:  Hawaii again, then to Arizona.
Season 5:  Canada, to where the hell did they end up.
Season 6:  Hawaii, again to Chicago and Pizza, whoo exciting.
Season 7:  Puerto Rico, then Florida
Season 8:  Toronto then upstate New York
Season 9:  Alaska to Colorado
Season 10:  Gay Paris to New York
All Stars:  Hawaii to SF/Oakland.

So I will be pleasantly surprised if the do end it in Alaska.  Though the State is certainly large enough for a full days tasks.


Offline Kogs

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #251 on: January 06, 2008, 03:06:22 PM »
Yup we'll see who's right :), I call somewhere other than Alaska. Maybe Ca.? thats my guess.

i have a funny feeling its either la or phenoix dont ask me why though :lol:

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Offline Zack.

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #252 on: January 06, 2008, 03:10:41 PM »
Quote
In that leg they started in Japan, first flew to Anchorage and then drove to the "the Detour Choice of One" (has that ever happened before, by the way) then teams went for another route marker, then back to Anchorage to await flights to Colorado.  Then went to Colorado, found route marker, then performed Roadblock  from hell and then Mat (and me crying, crying, crying.)

It has - in TAR2 they edited out a Detour in Alaska and in TAR5 they edited one out in the second Philippines leg. It seems quite random, because there are other legs where all teams have picked the same detour but both choices were left in (TAR6 in Xian, TARAS in Petrohue).

As far as Alaska goes, what stopping it from being an intermediate AND final destination, like say they go from Taiwan to Anchorage/Girdwood and then drive/fly/whatever to another town to the finish line?

and mswood, season 5 was Calgary to Dallas for Colin/Christie's luck to run out at the best time.  :yess:

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #253 on: January 06, 2008, 03:58:34 PM »
The Girdwood tasks are fairly extensive, involving several hours. Just getting to Girdwood from Anchorage International Airport takes one hour and getting back takes the same.

It is not logical to believe that teams will start a day in Taipei, fly to Anchorage, do tasks, and then then fly mid afternoon at the earliest to somewhere in the lower 48.

I have taken a fresh look(I did it 3 months ago, probably near the beginning of this thread) at which Western airport could be reached same-day from Anchorage. Starting from after 1pm, there is the list:

SEA AS162 1521 1945 (Note: there are several more about one hour apart later)
PDX AS162/ AS2433 SEA PDX 2100 2150
LAS US0116 1652 2300
LAX AS162/ AS598 SEA LAX 2055 2527
SAN AS162/ AS502 SEA SAN 2045  2331

So, the first possible flights gets into Seattle just before sunset.
The second flight gets to Portland well after sunset.
the flights to Las Vegas, Las Angeles, and San Diego get in in the hour before midnight.

ANYONE FOR AN IN-THE DARK FINALE? Obviously, not me.
I am using van Munster's statement of a 21 day schedule for AR12 as the basis for my belief that July 29 is the final day. Anyone can take the case of history(it's quite easy to say that Alaska or Hawaii have never before been the finish line for any Amazing Race) but I take the contrary case and say that it's the right time for van Munster to have stopped at Alaska. I also belive that we'll see a finish line in Hawaii soon.

Let me repeat something I rate as a key posting on this subject(not just because I wrote it):

puddin asked "Also after all the BS that BVM has reported do we still believe the race completes in 21 days?"

My answer is an unequivocal YES, I believe in the 21 day race. There will be only 11 legs. The last leg is going to Alaska. It can't possibly go on to anywhere else in a one hour show. This race will be over July 29, probably in the Girdwood area.

Just because BVM said it doesn't make it wrong. Sometimes he does tell the truth.
 











« Last Edit: January 06, 2008, 04:17:21 PM by apskip »

Offline Kogs

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #254 on: January 06, 2008, 04:11:21 PM »
Quote
In that leg they started in Japan, first flew to Anchorage and then drove to the "the Detour Choice of One" (has that ever happened before, by the way) then teams went for another route marker, then back to Anchorage to await flights to Colorado.  Then went to Colorado, found route marker, then performed Roadblock  from hell and then Mat (and me crying, crying, crying.)

It has - in TAR2 they edited out a Detour in Alaska and in TAR5 they edited one out in the second Philippines leg. It seems quite random, because there are other legs where all teams have picked the same detour but both choices were left in (TAR6 in Xian, TARAS in Petrohue).

As far as Alaska goes, what stopping it from being an intermediate AND final destination, like say they go from Taiwan to Anchorage/Girdwood and then drive/fly/whatever to another town to the finish line?

and mswood, season 5 was Calgary to Dallas for Colin/Christie's luck to run out at the best time.  :yess:

the second phillipian leg in tar5 did not have a detour. what you saw on tv was what they filmed. and in tar2 it was the roadblock driving across the glaciar thing in the big machines. you see tara and will arguing but they coudlnt switch


Offline michael

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #255 on: January 06, 2008, 04:11:50 PM »
Apskip this is a speculation thread and obviously people are going to have different opinions you don't need to prove why you think it ends in Alaska with each post.

Some of us say it doesn't some of us say it does..We'll find out soon enough

Offline Kogs

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #256 on: January 06, 2008, 04:12:29 PM »
The Girdwood tasks are fairly extensive, involving several hours. Just getting to Girdwood from Anchorage International Airport takes one hour and getting back takes the same.

It is not logical to believe that teams will start a day in Taipei, fly to Anchorage, do tasks, and then then fly mid afternoon at the earliest to somewhere in the lower 48.

I have taken a fresh look(I did it 3 months ago, probably near the beginning of this thread) at which Western airport could be reached same-day from Anchorage. Starting from after 1pm, there is the list:

SEA AS162 1521 1945 (Note: there are several more about one hour apart later)
PDX AS162/ AS2433 SEA PDX 2100 2150
LAS US0116 1652 2300
LAX AS162/ AS598 SEA LAX 2055 2527
SAN AS162/ AS502 SEA SAN 2045  2331

So, the first possible flights gets into Seattle just before sunset.
The second flight gets to Portland well after sunset.
the flights to Las Vegas, Las Angeles, and San Diego get in in the hour before midnight.

ANYONE FOR AN IN-THE DARK FINALE? Obviously, not me.
I am using van Munster's statement of a 21 day schedule for AR12 as the basis for my belief that July 29 is the final day. Anyone can take the case of history(it's quite easy to say that Alaska or Hawaii have never before been the finish line for any Amazing Race) but I take the contrary case and say that it's the right time for van Munster to have stopped at Alaska. I also belive that we'll see a finish line in Hawaii soon.

dont believe bvm. take it for a grain of salt

Offline Zack.

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #257 on: January 06, 2008, 04:21:06 PM »
The Girdwood tasks are fairly extensive, involving several hours. Just getting to Girdwood from Anchorage International Airport takes one hour and getting back takes the same.

It is not logical to believe that teams will start a day in Taipei, fly to Anchorage, do tasks, and then then fly mid afternoon at the earliest to somewhere in the lower 48.

I have taken a fresh look(I did it 3 months ago, probably near the beginning of this thread) at which Western airport could be reached same-day from Anchorage. Starting from after 1pm, there is the list:

SEA AS162 1521 1945 (Note: there are several more about one hour apart later)
PDX AS162/ AS2433 SEA PDX 2100 2150
LAS US0116 1652 2300
LAX AS162/ AS598 SEA LAX 2055 2527
SAN AS162/ AS502 SEA SAN 2045  2331

So, the first possible flights gets into Seattle just before sunset.
The second flight gets to Portland well after sunset.
the flights to Las Vegas, Las Angeles, and San Diego get in in the hour before midnight.

ANYONE FOR AN IN-THE DARK FINALE? Obviously, not me.
I am using van Munster's statement of a 21 day schedule for AR12 as the basis for my belief that July 29 is the final day. Anyone can take the case of history(it's quite easy to say that Alaska or Hawaii have never before been the finish line for any Amazing Race) but I take the contrary case and say that it's the right time for van Munster to have stopped at Alaska. I also belive that we'll see a finish line in Hawaii soon.

The question then becomes if they're staying in Alaska (which is possible), then if they're going to stay in the Anchorage area or if they're going to venture out for the Finish Line. I think that they may fly out to Fairbanks, have a task or two there, and then have the finish line in the Fairbanks area. Flights from Anchorage to Fairbanks take about an hour (and depart nearly every hour) so it allows them to have a somewhat close finish while preventing the racers from driving through Alaska.

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #258 on: January 06, 2008, 04:26:42 PM »
I have taken a fresh look at the connections from Mumbai to Osaka. AI358 is a five-times-weekly nonstop flight from Mumbai to Hongkong, departing 2340 and arriving 0755+1. I had run this for one day earlier(before we knew about the extended pitstop which we think was in Florence). The no-flying dates for AI358 are Monday and Wednesday and I ran i for July 23, a Monday. The 24th is a Tuesday and that flight is valid. Connections are critical.

Editor's Note: actually this has become moot becasue July 25 was a Wednesday and AI358 did not fly on Wednesdays. There is no allternative flight that goes from BOM to HKG except for AI310, which stops Delhi and HongKong before finishing in Seoul. It is advantageous for teams to stay on until Seoul. Then they would take  JL9062 ICN KIX 1220 1400. A flight from Hong Kong CX506 departing 1020 arriving 1440 would not have been a smart move compared to this.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2008, 08:49:31 AM by apskip »

Offline mswood

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #259 on: January 06, 2008, 04:29:21 PM »
Kogs and Zachattack308

Thanks for Dallas (I knew Calgary, but couldn't remember how to spell it, and the spelling police are on this thread).

And Yeah the final legs can be odd with tasks.

For example I listed the Family Edition as being two legs shown as a two hour block.  But I was wrong.  There is no Pit Stop (even though they do sleep) in this leg.  A leg that has one detour and two roadblocks.  So it is one leg that's two hours with an unusual number of tasks.


Offline mswood

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #260 on: January 06, 2008, 04:30:53 PM »
Kogs and Zachattack308

Thanks for Dallas (I knew Calgary, but couldn't remember how to spell it, and the spelling police are on this thread).

And Yeah the final legs can be odd with tasks.

For example I listed the Family Edition as being two legs shown as a two hour block.  But I was wrong.  There is no Pit Stop (even though they do sleep) in this leg.  A leg that has one detour and two roadblocks.  So it is one leg that's two hours with an unusual number of tasks.

Cool, its funny one of the things I am most looking forward to was how they hell they got there.  Thats twice this season.  Now its elimination or non elimination.

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #261 on: January 06, 2008, 09:22:08 PM »
Apskip this is a speculation thread and obviously people are going to have different opinions you don't need to prove why you think it ends in Alaska with each post.

Some of us say it doesn't some of us say it does..We'll find out soon enough

Michael D, I have to read all of your numerous postings because they are there, so you can read mine too. If I have something to say, then hearing from you that I am overdoing it is not going to deter me from saying it. If you don't like reading my postings, then skip over them.

Offline michael

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #262 on: January 06, 2008, 09:24:28 PM »
Quote
If you don't like reading my postings, then skip over them.

will do ;)

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #263 on: January 06, 2008, 09:37:11 PM »
It has taken a while to figure out all of the flights from Mumbai to Osaka. Part of the problem has been that there isn't ny connection out of Hong Kong that arrived Osaka between 2pm and 3pm. for the 3 teams that arrived together, the only connection I can find is through Seoul. It is:

AI310 1925 1025 BOM ICN
JL962 1220 1400 ICN KIX

For TK and Rachel, all I can say is that should shoot their Bombay travel agent. Here's why:

9W(Jet Airways) 360 BOM DEL 1855 2045 (Note: that puts them in ahead of AI310 which stops at Delhi)
However, the next leg makes no sense as it involvevs a 7 hour wait in Delhi for CA948, which leaves on the 26th at 0345 and arrived PEK( Beijing) at 1220
The final connection is JL786 PEK KIX 1400 1750.

This means that TK and Rachel arrived 3 hours, 20 minutes behind the other teams who actually arrived at 1430.

The first 3 teams appeared to finish after dark, so around 9pm. that means TK and Rachel finished around midnight. With an expected 12 hour pitstop, teams will be released to get following flights on July 27:

EG211 1030 1245 (Christina and Ronald and Nathan and Jennifer are likely to get this.)
CX556 1100 1315 (I think Donald and Nicholas will get this.)
BR2131 1255 1505 - I don't think TK and Rachel will have enough time to get this one.
CX157 1340 1550 (This is the one I expect TK and Rachel to get)

This means that I expect the arrivals in Taipei to be first 2 teams 30 minutes ahead of Donald/Nicholas and 3 hours ahead of Tk and Rachel. The speed bump should not make any difference; Tk and Rachel are going to be toast unless there is an intersection which would pull one of the 3 leading teams back.

Offline teufel

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #264 on: January 06, 2008, 09:54:19 PM »
Thanks, apskip!  :jumpy:  What time do they arrive at though? If they arrive at night, there might be an hours of operation and all the teams are bunched up.

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #265 on: January 06, 2008, 10:02:47 PM »
teufel, I am now assuming that you can't read 24 hour clock times, since all of the arrival times are prominent in my last post. Translating for you, 1245pm or 115pm for the first 3 teams and probably 350pm for TK and Rachel.

Offline teufel

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #266 on: January 06, 2008, 10:10:22 PM »
 :groan: Oh, sorry, I didn't know what those numbers meant. lol.  :angel:

Offline michael

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #267 on: January 06, 2008, 10:10:50 PM »
haha don't worry about it teufel -- I still can't read plane flight schedules  :lol3:

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #268 on: January 06, 2008, 10:20:47 PM »
Those times wouldn't make sense given the sighting at Taipei 101 - Jennifer/Nathan and TK/Rachel were there at noon so TKR would have to get out with enough time to make it there. Part of it is I'm sure a shortened pit stop while the other part is that I think teams checked in earlier than what you're estimating. Sunset in Osaka on the 26th was around 7 PM; Ron/Chris check in what looked like midday or late afteroon (maybe 6), Jen/Nate checked in during twilight (I guess 7:30), Nic/Don during the evening (around 9-9:30) and TKR around midnight. If the pitstop were 6-8 hours (like in Lithuania), TKR could get a flight out in the morning to catch up with Nate/Jen. Plus there could be an hours of operation bunch at Taipei 101 (or another place) to prevent the teams from getting too far ahead.

For all we know, they could have an interesting choice of transport (like ferry to Italy rather than airport). Maybe they have to get to Tokyo and fly out from there. Just trying to avoid fossiling myself in Osaka (thanks to Ron for that).

Online georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #269 on: January 06, 2008, 10:48:48 PM »
My friend was in Osaka this week and they took the bullet train from there to Tokyo to catch their flight. Is that possible for our guys?
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline Zack.

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #270 on: January 06, 2008, 11:33:08 PM »
My friend was in Osaka this week and they took the bullet train from there to Tokyo to catch their flight. Is that possible for our guys?

The information I found was that it takes roughly 2 and a half to 3 hours to get from Osaka to Tokyo (depending on the line), which would (with a reduced pit stop) get the teams in late evening on the 26th or early morning on the 27th. There's not a shortage of trains available so that won't be a problem. None of them will be able to make the last flight out (BR 2195 or EL 2125 2000 2300 NRT TPE) on the 26th, however with the bunching at the airport, there is sure to be jockeying for direct flights out from Tokyo, of which there are many:

EL 2103 or BR 2181 0920 1150
CI 0107 0940 1230
JL 0641 1000 1235

If the sighting at Taipei 101 is accurate, then Jen/Nate and TKR make the first flight, possibly accompanied by the other teams. Tasks in Taipei take up the rest of the afternoon, and the pit stop is in the evening of the 27th, setting up for flights out on the 28th which apskip has outlined in great detail.

(This is what happens when you try not to fossilize your options at 12:30 in the morning - take a grain of salt with it  :lol: )


« Last Edit: January 06, 2008, 11:42:58 PM by zackattack308 »

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #271 on: January 06, 2008, 11:57:05 PM »
Thanks zack! :waves:
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Offline Chateau d If

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #272 on: January 07, 2008, 01:37:18 AM »
Quote
It has taken a while to figure out all of the flights from Mumbai to Osaka. Part of the problem has been that there isn't ny connection out of Hong Kong that arrived Osaka between 2pm and 3pm. for the 3 teams that arrived together, the only connection I can find is through Seoul.

How about this one:

[attachment deleted by admin]
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Offline Chateau d If

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #273 on: January 07, 2008, 01:53:39 AM »
And the rest is easy:   :keeta:



[attachment deleted by admin]
« Last Edit: January 07, 2008, 02:05:08 AM by Chateau d If »
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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #274 on: January 07, 2008, 07:07:40 AM »
And the rest is easy:   :keeta:

You're appeared to be right, CHATEAU. However, the 24 hour pitstop has screwed it up for you. There is a fatal flaw in your total flight route and timing. It is the non-existence of AI358 on Wed. July 25 out of Mumbai. Since it doesn't fly on Wednesdays, there is nothing else Mumbai to Hong Kong that can connect you to CX506 in time for its 1020 departure to Osaka. the only flight teams can use is A310(the one I am showing in my current Timeline), which stops in delhi and HongKong before finishing in Seoul. With the connection from Seoul to KIX arriving at 2pm, why would any team have got offin Hong Kong and taken a flight scheduled to arrive 40 minutes later?
« Last Edit: January 07, 2008, 08:57:52 AM by apskip »


 

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