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Author Topic: TAR12 timeline speculation  (Read 55685 times)

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Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #200 on: December 30, 2007, 11:29:45 PM »
Major crow munching going on here  :-[

I'll get you a beer at TARcon Apskip!
If your passing out presents Chateau then I want to give you something  :flowers:


Offline Chateau d If

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #201 on: December 30, 2007, 11:31:09 PM »
I haven't thought of anything yet.  But I want to do something Gothic. 
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Our children, what are they going to amount to?

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Offline Chateau d If

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #202 on: December 30, 2007, 11:49:49 PM »
We need to slip in another day.  From TWoP, we are directed to this.  And it tells us that the teams did their tasks on July 24th in Mumbai.  So the pitstop in Florence was 36 hours long.

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Documenting her Race Around the World:  Wild Eyes
Our children, what are they going to amount to?

Offline michael

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #203 on: December 30, 2007, 11:53:04 PM »
I haven't thought of anything yet.  But I want to do something Gothic


Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #204 on: December 30, 2007, 11:54:18 PM »
Nice shot Chateau! and in the insider clips Phil is in Mumbai a full day ahead of the teams setting up the speed bump.

good job!


Offline Slowhatch

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #205 on: December 31, 2007, 12:17:19 AM »
 :tup: Yep, it's the real deal. At first I thought it was an "amazing" edition. But go here, dial up 24 July and look at page 20 ("business by bids").

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #206 on: December 31, 2007, 12:23:18 AM »
How did you ever find that Slowhatch!!??  :jam:

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Offline michael

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #207 on: December 31, 2007, 12:25:31 AM »
woah great find slowhatch!
haha imagine somebody found it before the episode aired? That would have been cool.

Offline Kiwi Jay

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #208 on: December 31, 2007, 12:56:22 AM »
may I ask how you got a photo like that??
'We are the makers of music, and the dreamers of dreams' - 'To roam the roads of lands remote, to travel is to live'.

Offline Slowhatch

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #209 on: December 31, 2007, 12:58:07 AM »
Quote
may I ask how you got a photo like that??
Me, Puddin or Michael?


Offline Kiwi Jay

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #210 on: December 31, 2007, 01:06:36 AM »
u!!
'We are the makers of music, and the dreamers of dreams' - 'To roam the roads of lands remote, to travel is to live'.

Offline Slowhatch

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #211 on: December 31, 2007, 01:17:23 AM »
I'm great at finding stuff once somebody tells me where it is.  :-[  :lol3: The Times of India is one of those rare papers that offers up archives (image archives at that) for free. It's something you couldn't have found on a normal web search. I just finished googling "chauhan alteration tailors" and got just three hits (for now), including this interesting one with some local slang--"cylinder-wallah," etc. Notice the wording of the ad: it was designed not only to foil us but also any curious people in Mumbai who might come out to watch.

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #212 on: December 31, 2007, 01:26:41 AM »
We're lucky to have you here Slowhatch, very impressive!

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #213 on: December 31, 2007, 08:19:48 AM »
CHATEAU, don't let it bother you. Those of us who forecast inherently risky events are always going to make both big and little mistakes. It goes with the territory. All you can do is keep up the good work. The only RFF poster I know who is practically perfect is puddin. She does it with intelligence, hard work, and many excellent connections to people in the know.

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #214 on: December 31, 2007, 08:25:22 AM »
Taking my own advice, I am going to put myself out there one more time and predict that the NEL or TBC will be at the end of the Osaka leg. This is different from my position which was initially post #28 on this thread Nov. 19. The logic for this is complelling. Teams do not get to Osaka until 6 to 7pm. They are not likely to finish all tasks by midnight; some hours of operation is going to catch them.  However, they should finish by mid-morning of July 26. That gives them time to get the TBC and to the airport to take one of the 3 flights to Taipei in the late morning/early/afternoon time frame. It gets them to the Taipei 101 building for the sighting that we know occurred. After the rest of the Taipei tasks, there will have to be a 24 hour extended pitstop prior to the flight to Anchorage. See my latest timeline to understand why.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2007, 08:50:39 AM by apskip »

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Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #215 on: December 31, 2007, 08:44:48 AM »
My latest timeline revision(only slightly with the dates from Florence departure on):

1. 8th LAX to DUB  EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230 or EI125 1300 to 1345
BA278   LAX to LHR 1535 0945(July 9)  EI375 1050 1210

2. 11 SNN to DUB EI132 0700 0745, conecting with either EI604 DUB AMS 0940 1215 or EI606 DUB AMS 1120 1355

3. 13 AMS to CDG many  Air France choices:  8227 0645 0805; 8223 0725 0850; 8229 0800 0930;  
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF732  1100 to 1635
14 OUA to Bingo by rail; tasks and pitstop
15 REST DAY

4.  16  Bouda Pelegtanga to OUA by road.
 
5. OUA to CDG AF731  2130 0610 +1
17 CDG to AMS or FRA or PRG to VNO arrivals between 1325 and 1410
  
18 REST DAY

6. All of these flights are on July 19th
 Top 3 teams used this route:
 Vilnius Warsaw 0625 0650 LO774
Warsaw Vienna 0740 0905 LO223
Vienna Dubrovnik OS7059 1010 1120

The route that was altered by the late arrival in Prague for TK and Rachel was:

Vilnius Prague 0600 0635 OK871(note: actually 0720 arrival)
Prague Vienna OS704 0840 0945
Vienna Dubrovnik OS731 1315 1440 (Note: not valid per my sources, but OK per Austrian Airlines current schedule)

Don and Nic took:

OK871 0600 0635 VNO PRG (note: actually 0720 arrival)
OK818 1200 1335 PRG ZAG
OU662 1445 1540 ZAG DBV

Azaria/Hendekea probably got something like this through Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Zagreb:

TE460 0730 0905 VNO AMS
LH4673 1040 1150 AMS FRA
OU419 1430 1615 FRA DBV

7. 20 Teams took 4.5 hour buses from 0500 to 0800 to split, then the SNAV ferry at 1700 arriving 2140 to Ancona, then U-drive cars from Ancona at least 212 miles to Empoli(west of Florence).
Pitstop in florence, then extended 36 hour rest period

8. Choice of several flight possiblities from Florence to Mumbai:
23 0650 0855 AF5049 FLR CDG
1030 2350 AF134 CDG BOM

0655 0840 LH4067 FLR FRA
1135 2350 AI126 FRA BOM

0725 0925 KL3135 FLR AMS
1010 2350 NW34 AMS BOM
 
Mumbai tasks on the 24th, then 12 hour pitstop.

9. Most of the teams take:
24 TG318 BOM BKK 2350 0530
25 TG600 BKK HKG 0800 1145
     CX564 HKG KIX 1310 1910

except for TK and Rachel, who I believe take this combination:
24 TG318 BOM BKK 2350 0530
25 TG630 BKK TPE 0725 1155
     EG212 TPE KIX   1430 1750

25 tasks in Osaka start and finish next morning, then TBC

26 AM release from Osaka;
KIX TPE via any of these 3 flights:
EG211 1030 1245
CX565 1100 1315
BR2121 1235 1505

26 Taipei 101 sighting early afternoon on Friday, then 24 hour extended pitstop
 
28 TPE to ANC CI11 0245 0630 (July 28 after crossing the International Date Line)

FINISH LINE on July 29 in either GIRDWOOD or ANCHORAGE in 21 Days

NOTE: This version assumes that teams would not reach pitstop before 10pm(a good bet if they aren't arriving until 7pm). An alternate has themfinishing then and leaving Osaka after an extended 36 hour pitstop on July 27 on the above flights(see July 26 above), then having a normal 12 hour pitstop and a TBC after the TPE leg. I like this version better.

« Last Edit: January 01, 2008, 09:32:38 AM by apskip »

Offline gingerman28

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #216 on: December 31, 2007, 11:26:33 AM »
Ep 9 travel dates should be 24 and 25 (not 23 and 24)

You have most teams arriving in Hong Kong at 1145 and leaving for Osaka at 1155.  A ten minute connection is impossible.  Do they lay over for 24 hours?

Same for Tk and Rachel.  They arrive in Hong Kong at 1145 and leave for ICN  at 0725.  Another 20 hour layover?

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #217 on: December 31, 2007, 12:47:19 PM »
GMAN, you are absolutely right. I messed up some dates and I have had to change the flight number to a later one that gets into Osaka 5 minutes later than the one I originally showed.

It is kind of a shame to have my 1000th post this way, but keeping the Timeline as good as it can be is really important.

Offline apskip

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #218 on: January 01, 2008, 04:53:08 PM »
I have had two knockout punches today relating to race timing, so please bear with me on this rambling. Let's start with the flight from Taipei to Anchorage. It was so simple, but it is appears that I reversed the order of the cities, because CI11 is the flight from ANC to TPE, not the reverse direction that we need. Next, my prime source is showing CI12 on SATURDAY July 28, but I do not believe it because it also showed x136, which is airline lingo means not on Monday, Wednesday or Saturday. Where does that leave us? It appears to leave us without a Saturday flight, forcing teams to fly to Anchorage on Sunday July 29 and then after arriving go straight to some difficult tasks in the Girdwood area that can only happen that day.

OK, so the second punch was CHATEAU's timing of a photo in the 4 to 5 pm range(he states it a little wider, but this is close enough for my purpose) in Osaka. Since teams cannot arrive that early on July 25, that means the photo must be July 26. The implication of that is that my theory of completing Osaka tasks by mid to late morning on the 26th is no longer valid, at least not for Donald and Nicolas. That puts the pitstop in the late afternoon.

Where does that leave us? If it's the TBC I expect then it won't be too bad. Teams can catch one of two flights to Taipei from Kansai International Airport(the main one for overseas):

NW69  1840 2050
EG217 1855 2110

However, if not a TBC then the pitstop will hold teams until morning of the 27th. At that point, there are no good options for flying from Kansai to Taipei. They will have to use an alternate airport, such as Itami. Here is a flight combination that would make sense:

ITM FUK JL2051 0740 0855
FUK TPE CX511 1025 1205

If teams have the TBC they will arrive Taipei evening of the 26th; if there is an elimination in Osaka they will arrive at noon on the 27th. Tasks will then carry them through the afternoon or evening. If there was a TBC then it's easy to see a 36 hour extended pitstop until the morning of July 29; if not then I have a potential problem because teams cannot lay over until the nonstop Taipei to Anchorage flight when if they have to do a TBC at Taipei. If it is non-elim then that problem goes away and they can also get the 36 hour extended pitstop.

The nonstop flight from TPE to ANC is on Sunday July 29, CI12 leaving at 1625 and arriving same day July 29 in Anchorage at 750am due to the wonders of the International Date Line.  
« Last Edit: January 01, 2008, 05:17:19 PM by apskip »

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #219 on: January 01, 2008, 06:12:50 PM »
Phil tells us that there is one more NonElim and I can't see that happening in the final 3 as in EP10/11 so it must come this week EP9. We can't have a TBC Osaka to Taiwan or a TBC Taiwan to Alaska if someone is to be eliminated then it has to be EP10 to give us our final 3.

*just rambling*

July 26th Osaka NEL
July 27th Taiwan Elim, speed bump? down to the final 3
Jully 29th Taiwan to Alaska final 3 =winner

Also after all the BS that BVM has reported do we still believe the race completes in 21 days?

Offline michael

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #220 on: January 01, 2008, 06:16:27 PM »
I don't know puddin -- I think 21 days seems kind of fast --

OT:
Alaska is 100% the finish line right?

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #221 on: January 01, 2008, 06:24:27 PM »
I don't know puddin -- I think 21 days seems kind of fast --

OT:
Alaska is 100% the finish line right?
I don't think it is but who knows? I still like the Playboy mansion but thats just me.  :duno:

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #222 on: January 01, 2008, 06:38:00 PM »
We 100% know that teams were in Girdwood Alaska on July 29.

We have BVM's word (no non-elims, monsoons, 21 days... :lol:) for a 21 day race.

We also know that most of the myspace crew logged back in by July 31-Aug 1, right? None on the 30th or do we know that?

I would LOVE it if they went somewhere else for the finale. I think there is a lot going on that day if they don't arrive till that AM, have to get to Girdwood, do a river trip and a glacier climb, and have to run around Anchorage too.

Plus would they really want to bring the guys in Portugal all the way to Alaska?
Could happen but...

I hate the idea of the Playboy Mansion again though! :lol3:


"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline puddin

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #223 on: January 01, 2008, 06:43:22 PM »
OT:

Well I always thought, in the back of my mind anyway, that Jonathan Baker knew something with Jason & Lorena thrown in as to not give away the final 3.

---------------------
October 15, 2007
 
Amazing Race 12
It is that time again......... Amazing Race 12 kick off Nov 4 on CBS from the Playboy Mansion. Both Victoria and my self were at the starting line.
Team Picks
I am going to love this season because it is so dam colorful. I need to go out with my teams picks and this season I am picking my top three not necessary in any order. Jennifer & Nathan , Lorena & Jason, Rachel & TK and Nicolas & Donald is my wild card pick.

link~ http://www.jonathanbakerandvictoriafuller.com/blogarchives.php?PHPSESSID=644aea7671c06a94173df8c6af146d04

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #224 on: January 01, 2008, 06:55:52 PM »
Yes, because we all know he couldn't have possibly figured that out on his own!  :snicker:

And WHY was he there anyway? Guess that means he could have been there again though if it did by chance finish there...
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan


 

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