Subscribe to the Big Brother Live Feeds

Author Topic: TAR12 timeline speculation  (Read 55331 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline patlini

  • Amazing Race Detective
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2122
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #175 on: December 13, 2007, 01:13:45 PM »
Peach, Apskip that's what I was thinking to.

looks like TPTB have planned this race out better thus the uneven pit stop times.



Offline TARAsia Fan

  • TAR/TARA Updater
  • RFF Donor
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 8790
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #176 on: December 13, 2007, 11:35:55 PM »
Or making up times to fit their own purposes.
Just here to visit.

Subscribe to the Big Brother Live Feeds

Offline patlini

  • Amazing Race Detective
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2122
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #177 on: December 14, 2007, 08:37:37 PM »
Or making up times to fit their own purposes.

like an away day in Split...

Offline Chateau d If

  • Captain of the Obvious
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4577
  • Missing Apskip :(
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #178 on: December 20, 2007, 01:23:30 AM »
I have an idea on how to make this fit:  (note that Osaka is in the Finale)

[attachment deleted by admin]
Documenting her Race Around the World:  Wild Eyes
Our children, what are they going to amount to?

Online georgiapeach

  • Amazing Race Moderator
  • RFF Board Moderator
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 39821
  • TAR Detective
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #179 on: December 20, 2007, 01:32:12 AM »
I think flight info from apskip et al has shown that the route has to be India--Osaka--Taiwan to make the flights work...

But WOW do I love that sheet!
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan


Offline puddin

  • **puddinpiepork**
  • RFF Assistant Administrator
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 85481
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #180 on: December 20, 2007, 09:30:17 AM »
Maybe Chateau has ideas of his own peach? Very nice Chateau, thankyou  :cmas20 I like!!

I have an idea on how to make this fit:  (note that Osaka is in the Finale)

Offline patlini

  • Amazing Race Detective
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2122
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #181 on: December 20, 2007, 09:43:38 AM »
ditto Chateau

I like it.
That way you can be working on a spreadsheet at work  :cmas27

(instead of scouring google maps and flickr  :cmas50)

Online georgiapeach

  • Amazing Race Moderator
  • RFF Board Moderator
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 39821
  • TAR Detective
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #182 on: December 20, 2007, 09:46:49 AM »
Tell us more, Chateau?

I want one of those sheets--wow wow wow!
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline Chateau d If

  • Captain of the Obvious
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4577
  • Missing Apskip :(
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #183 on: December 20, 2007, 10:30:55 AM »
Quote
I think flight info from apskip et al has shown that the route has to be India--Osaka--Taiwan to make the flights work...

Here it is both ways.  If you go Taiwan last then you get a squeeze for India and Osaka before Taiwan.  And you get 38 hours for activities in Taiwan (that is way too long).

Who cares if you have to use Taiwan for the best flight from Osaka to Alaska?

[attachment deleted by admin]
Documenting her Race Around the World:  Wild Eyes
Our children, what are they going to amount to?

Online georgiapeach

  • Amazing Race Moderator
  • RFF Board Moderator
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 39821
  • TAR Detective
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #184 on: December 20, 2007, 10:53:08 AM »
Very interesting! I see how it could go...

But the 38 hours is puzzling me--couldn't that be used up by an extended Pitstop somewhere?

    oh wait--I see--it is because we believe teams were seen 7/27 about noon at Taipei--right?

And won't either Osaka or Taipei have to be a TBC? (whichever is last before Alaska).  Then you don't get the Pitstop hours there...

Does it still work if for instance whichever is first is a longer Pitstop to let them recover from the (assumed)  TBC India leg? And then no Pitstop in the whichever is last before Alaska leg--due to the second TBC?

Or do you think we are having 2 TBC's at all?? ???

« Last Edit: December 20, 2007, 10:56:22 AM by georgiapeach »
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan


Offline Chateau d If

  • Captain of the Obvious
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4577
  • Missing Apskip :(
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #185 on: December 20, 2007, 11:02:37 AM »
Quote
And won't either Osaka or Taipei have to be a TBC? (whichever is last before Alaska).

You're right.  I forgot about that.  I did that spreadsheet back in October.

Here it is with TBC folded in.  It does not change the conclusion for me. 

Osaka in the Finale!   :mas25

[attachment deleted by admin]
Documenting her Race Around the World:  Wild Eyes
Our children, what are they going to amount to?

Online georgiapeach

  • Amazing Race Moderator
  • RFF Board Moderator
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 39821
  • TAR Detective
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #186 on: December 20, 2007, 11:14:27 AM »
Okay one more question--why would they have 23 hours in Osaka for tasks now? Or could Taipei just be a 24-36 hour Pitstop--do flights still work?

But hey--sounds like somebody better start beating Boingo's drum!!  :cmaslol :cmaslol

"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6198
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #187 on: December 20, 2007, 09:46:12 PM »
CHATEAU, you know that I have a lot of respect for your thoughts on timelines. However, there are several points to keep in mind with respect to whether Osaka precedes Taipei(my thesis) or vice-versa(yours):

1. I believe that the schedule in Girdwood for July 29 was so tight that World Race Productions could not afford to jeopardize that with a late same-day arrival of the F3 teams from Taiwan. I have scheduled that on July 28 as a result, one day before you have.

2. Although there was backtracking from Vilnius to Croatia and lesser backtracking is about to happen from Dubrovnik to Florence and some more possibly to the European hub city (probably FRA, CDG, or AMS, all west of Florence) for the flight to India, I cannot subscribe to your theory that World Race Productions will allow a Taipei to Osaka to Taipei routing. This makes no sense, so they won't do it.

3. With the current timing of arrival in India on July 23(after TBC I expect in Florence), 2 days probable to do whatever in India, one half day to get to Osaka, one day for Osaka, hours to get to Taipei, and at a minimum hours needed(due to TBC) in Taipei, add that all up and you get July 27. We need an extra 24 hour pit stop in Osaka or multiple hours of operation delays in Taipei adding up to one day. That would take it to the afternoon of July 28 for the departure of the China Airlines flight 11 to Anchorage.

Offline Chateau d If

  • Captain of the Obvious
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4577
  • Missing Apskip :(
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #188 on: December 20, 2007, 11:21:29 PM »
Backtracking!

I'll show you backtracking:

[attachment deleted by admin]
Documenting her Race Around the World:  Wild Eyes
Our children, what are they going to amount to?

Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6198
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #189 on: December 21, 2007, 11:25:39 AM »
I can't help it that Taiwan is southwest of Japan. But WRP can help it to not retrace the Osaka to Taipei airspace.

Subscribe to the Big Brother Live Feeds

Offline Chateau d If

  • Captain of the Obvious
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4577
  • Missing Apskip :(
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #190 on: December 24, 2007, 03:40:36 PM »
Let me further cement the inevitable news that Taiwan directly follows India and precedes Osaka.   :cmas10

1)  We have that on the eighth leg of the race 5 teams head into India (race date was Sunday, July 22nd).  And on December 30th we will see one of those five eliminated. 
2)  We can conclude that it is Ron & Christina who are eliminated based on this spoiler statement regarding teams seen and heard at Taipei 101:
Quote
*He THINKS that there was an Asian team far behind or eliminated already because he was a good listener. 
*When he was walking into Taipei 101, he was literally 2 feet away from the blond racer and he heard the girl say something like “I wonder what the Asians would say if they came to this place”. 
3)  On January 6th we will see the ninth leg of the race under the title "I Just Hope He Doesn't Croak On Us".  This leg will also be in India but it does not mater exactly where or even it turns out to not be India.
4)  In this leg there will be 4 teams and the title strongly suggests the implementation of the Intersection of teams into two pairs.  The title seems to make Donald the subject since he is the only remaining senior at that point.
5)  Supposition  Yes, I do have a supposition here in the logic:  Suppose that this ninth leg of the race does end with the 2nd of two NEL's on the race.  So parts of what follows are dependent on that supposition being true.
6)  On January 13th we will see the 10th leg of the race with 4 teams still racing.  And they are still racing as Intersected pairs.
7)  The statement of the Taiwan spoiler also says:
Quote
*When he was planning to shop in 101 at noon, he saw this man and women (couples)  ran out of the taxi and looked up at Taipei 101.
*He also saw 2 camera men running with them.
*However, he found it weird that the couples did not enter the Taipei 101 and were actually waiting for someone.
*He describes the couple as a brunette woman and a man.  He said that the man seemed very athletic and fit.
*Since he saw that there were camera men around, he notices that this might be on TV.
*He continued to stay for 10 minutes and another group came which he describes as another couple which consists of a blond girl. 
8)  This nails down the conclusion that teams were still intersected.  Specifically that Nate & Jenn were paired to TK & Rachel.  It also means that either Kynt or Vyxsin is responsible for the regrettable quote about croaking Don.

Therefore the Taiwan leg is the 10th leg of the race that we will see on January 13th.

 :mas25

[attachment deleted by admin]
« Last Edit: December 24, 2007, 03:50:32 PM by Chateau d If »
Documenting her Race Around the World:  Wild Eyes
Our children, what are they going to amount to?

Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6198
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #191 on: December 26, 2007, 11:32:13 AM »
REVISED AR12 TIMELINE:

1. 8th LAX to DUB  EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230 or EI125 1300 to 1345
BA278   LAX to LHR 1535 0945(July 9)  EI375 1050 1210

2. 11 SNN to DUB EI132 0700 0745, conecting with either EI604 DUB AMS 0940 1215 or EI606 DUB AMS 1120 1355

3. 13 AMS to CDG many  Air France choices:  8227 0645 0805; 8223 0725 0850; 8229 0800 0930; 
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF732  1100 to 1635
14 OUA to Bingo by rail; tasks and pitstop
15 REST DAY

4.  16  Bouda Pelegtanga to OUA by road.
 
5. OUA to CDG AF731  2130 0610 +1
17 CDG to AMS or FRA or PRG to VNO arrivals between 1325 and 1410
 
18 REST DAY

6. All of these flights are on July 19th
 Top 3 teams used this route:
 Vilnius Warsaw 0625 0650 LO774
Warsaw Vienna 0740 0905 LO223
Vienna Dubrovnik OS7059 1010 1120

The route that was altered by the late arrival in Prague for TK and Rachel was:

Vilnius Prague 0600 0635 OK871(note: actually 0720 arrival)
Prague Vienna OS704 0840 0945
Vienna Dubrovnik OS731 1315 1440 (Note: not valid per my sources, but OK per Austrian Airlines current schedule)

Don and Nic took:

OK871 0600 0635 VNO PRG (note: actually 0720 arrival)
OK818 1200 1335 PRG ZAG
OU662 1445 1540 ZAG DBV

Azaria/Hendekea probably got something like this through Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Zagreb:

TE460 0730 0905 VNO AMS
LH4673 1040 1150 AMS FRA
OU419 1430 1615 FRA DBV

7. 20 Teams took 4.5 hour buses from 0500 to 0800 to split, then the SNAV ferry at 1700 arriving 2140 to Ancona, then U-drive cars from Ancona at least 212 miles to Empoli(west of Florence).

8. Choice of several flight possiblities from Florence to Mumbai:
22 0650 0855 AF5049 FLR CDG
1030 2350 AF134 CDG BOM

0655 0840 LH4067 FLR FRA
1135 2350 AI126 FRA BOM

0715 0855 OS538 FLR VIE
1100 2320 OS35 VIE BOM

0735 0825 AZ1699 FLR MXP
1030 2310 AZ720 MXP BOM

0725 0925 KL3135 FLR AMS
1010 2350 NW34 AMS BOM
 
Mumbai tasks on the 23rd, then 24 hour pitstop.

9. 24 AI314 BOM KIX 2025 1140+1

25 tasks in Osaka

26 AM pitstop release from Osaka;
KIX TPE via any of these 3 flights:
EG211 1030 1245
CX565 1100 1315
BR2121 1235 1505

Taipei 101 sighting early afternoon on Friday, then 36 hour extended pitstop
 
28 TPE to ANC CI11 0245 0630 (July 28 after crossing the International Date Line)

FINISH LINE on July 29 in either GIRDWOOD or ANCHORAGE in 21 Days

The open issue with the above timeline is what happened to the missing NEL/TBC. A possible solution is to use it to have a double leg in India and then combine Osaka and Taipei into one leg. I don't show that because I am not predicting that it happened. I am also not predicting the Taipei to Osaka route that CHATEAU is. He has his reasons and I just do not agree that they are compelling over the logistical reasons underlying the route as shown above.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2007, 12:54:06 PM by apskip »

Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6198
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #192 on: December 28, 2007, 05:23:05 PM »
Here's something new and different, an analysis of total mileage so far for AR12:

The air portion is calculated in nautical miles since that's the way the airlines report mileage, a tricky way of minimizing your frequent flyer miles. Here is what it is by leg:

1. LAX to SNN via DUB 4693
    LAX to SNN via LHR  5046

2. SNN to AMS via DUB 510

3. AMS to OUA via CDG 2424

4. not applicable

5. OUA to VNO via CDG and AMS 3167

6. VNO to DBV via VIE 850
    VNO to DBV via PRG and VIE 970
    VNO to DBV via PRG and ZAG 987
    VNO to DBV via AMS and FRA 1272

7. SNAV ship SPLIT TO ANCONA 100 nautical miles

If you want to take the sum of all the legs and convert to regular miles, you can multiply by 1.15. My guess is that World Race Productions is thinking regular miles in their count of how many miles AR12 has travelled.

We are by no means done, as there are some smaller but still significant miles to be counted on land:

1. Playboy Club to LAX  13
    Shannon Airport to dock to Innis Mor plus dock to Innis Mor to Cleggan Farms to Connemara Heritage Center 100

2. Clifden to Shannon 100

3. train to Bingo 25

4. car Bingo to Bouda Pelegtanga 100
    car Bouda Pelegtanga to Ouagadougou 100

5. car Vilnius to Trakai(note - not shown on the show, but teams did it) 25
    car Trakai to Vilnius 25

6. taxi in from Dubrovnik airport and up to pitstop and then back to town 30

7. Bus Dubrovnik to Split 120
    Car Ancona to Empoli minimum 200, max. unknown
    Car Empoli to Vinci 7
    Car Vinci to Florence 29

    For the Fast Forward, the last two entries are replaced by Car Empoli to Florence 20


    


« Last Edit: December 28, 2007, 05:46:34 PM by apskip »

Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6198
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #193 on: December 30, 2007, 10:35:48 PM »
With the 6am start of the tasks in Mumbai, there is no possibility that any team got done early enough to get onto Air India flight 310 departing at 810pm or 710pm depending on which source you use. Teams just couldn't blow throw Mumbai in one hour with those tasks and the traffic between tasks.

So, that leaves me with the need to readjust flights out of Mumbai. The best combination I can find in general later in the evening on Monday July 23 is:

TG318 BOM BKK 2350 0530
TG600 BKK HKG 0800 1145
JL702 HKG KIX  1155 1905

The only problem with this is that it doesn't provide any opportunity for TK and Rachel to break off and get ahead. However, I have the answer for that. I believe that they use their knowledge from a travel agent or airline agent to have ticketed a break from the others in Hong Kong by not going directly to Osaka but through Taipei to Osaka and make an easy 1 hour 55 minute connection:

TG630  HKG ICN 0725 1155
EG212 ICN KIX   1430 1750

This is a 4-leg triple connection route, but so what. They will arrive 75 minutes before the other teams.

Offline Neobie

  • Amazing Detective
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1968
  • For the winners go to spoil!
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #194 on: December 30, 2007, 10:41:21 PM »
Just a little nitpicking... The direct flight to Osaka leaves at 2.55pm?

I'm wondering... Would Nic/Donald say "we haven't seen them at the airport" if they were together from Mumbai to Hong Kong, before TK/Rachel dash off to Incheon?

Hmm... How many days are involved here? I'm a little lost...
« Last Edit: December 30, 2007, 10:46:48 PM by Neobie »
Found out that Neobie in Chinese means "f*king awesome"! No, really. Look it up!

Offline michael

  • The King of St Olaf
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 5810
    • Facebook Profile
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #195 on: December 30, 2007, 10:47:51 PM »
This could be a little bit of creative editing.

Maybe Rachel and TK book their flight and just leave the airport and the other teams start freaking out because they think they got on an earlier flight.

Kind of like in the Moroccan leg of TAR10 all the teams were having a panic attack because Dustin and Kandice weren't at the airport yet.

Offline Neobie

  • Amazing Detective
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1968
  • For the winners go to spoil!
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #196 on: December 30, 2007, 10:56:39 PM »
But the teams are wondering about TK/Rachel in Hong Kong, no?

Confused! :pull The Bangkok flight arrives in Taipei (Incheon?) at 21:45 and the flight from there to Osaka leaves at 07:25? :'(
« Last Edit: December 30, 2007, 11:02:05 PM by Neobie »
Found out that Neobie in Chinese means "f*king awesome"! No, really. Look it up!

Offline puddin

  • **puddinpiepork**
  • RFF Assistant Administrator
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 85481
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #197 on: December 30, 2007, 11:09:04 PM »
Just a little nitpicking... The direct flight to Osaka leaves at 2.55pm?

I'm wondering... Would Nic/Donald say "we haven't seen them at the airport" if they were together from Mumbai to Hong Kong, before TK/Rachel dash off to Incheon?

Hmm... How many days are involved here? I'm a little lost...

Neobie the Taiwan sighting was Taipei,Date July 27th, Alaska puts us at the 29th << solid , BVM if he's to be believed *cough*not*cough* says the race was 21 days  :res: so Osaka 23rd? 24th? this i'm not sure about.

Offline Chateau d If

  • Captain of the Obvious
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4577
  • Missing Apskip :(
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #198 on: December 30, 2007, 11:23:17 PM »
Major crow munching going on here  :-[

I'll get you a beer at TARcon Apskip!

[attachment deleted by admin]
Documenting her Race Around the World:  Wild Eyes
Our children, what are they going to amount to?

Offline Kogs

  • Amazing detective
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2714
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #199 on: December 30, 2007, 11:27:18 PM »
Major crow munching going on here  :-[

I'll get you a beer at TARcon Apskip!

its more like using flight logic chatue, its ok we forgive you


 

Custom Search