Author Topic: TAR12 timeline speculation  (Read 56954 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6201
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #150 on: November 30, 2007, 10:46:05 AM »
I am now going to address the question from Peach on flights to Split. There are 4 daily flights on July 19 into Split from Zagreb(one more than to Dubrovnik):

OU650 0645 0730
OU654 1200 1255
OU380 1415 1500
OU656 2100 2145

Getting the first one is impossible unless a team is overnighting at Zagreb. The second one cannot be reached started from Vilnius in the morning. The third one is the one that the earliest teams on the 0600 flight VNO to PRG should be able to connect with. The fourth one would be for the laggard teams. Please note that I do not believe that any teams went to Split, so I regard this as an academic exercise. If teams did get to Split, they are only 120 miles from Dubrovnik and could get there by charter flight, bus, taxi, or U-drive car.


Offline gingerman28

  • Senior Amazing Race Detective
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2015
  • GMan
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #151 on: November 30, 2007, 11:27:21 AM »
Don't forget that the teams took a long taxi-ride in Ireland and in BF for about 200 miles.  Driving in Italy is easy with the Autostradas so drive from Milano or Roma shouldn't be out of the question.

Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6201
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #152 on: November 30, 2007, 03:45:55 PM »
GMAN, teams are required to get to a designated airport for departure. They are not allowed to deviate to gain an advantage. Remember AR10 on Zanzibar, where going back to the mainland by hydrofoil and then flying out of Dar-es-Salaam aiport would have resulted in a big advantage. It was not allowed due to the constraints imposed by the clue. Your proposal would not be either because there is an airport in Florence. Teams will be required by the clue to fly to it.

Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6201
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #153 on: November 30, 2007, 04:01:37 PM »
Peach indicated
Quote
patlini WAS saying there that we couldn't get INTO Kaunas but we just might be able to get out...
Peach, please see my added note to post #136, which reviews the thrice weekly schedule Kaunas to Frankfurt and concludes that Monday/Friday/Sunday do not come close to being helpful. Only if there were additional days this summer would it be possible to fly out from Kaunas to Frankfurt on the late evening of July 18. Even with this the first flight from FRA to ZAG does nto get in until after the first flight from ZAG to DBV has left and the earliest possible arrival through Frankfurt is 340pm into Dubrovnik or 1255pm into Split.

Offline puddin

  • **puddinpiepork**
  • RFF Assistant Administrator
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 85481
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #154 on: November 30, 2007, 04:15:50 PM »
I don't want to jump the so called gun but if what I just posted in EP5 is correct as far as times as in -- putting the Siblings & Nic & Gramps in the back of the pack with perhaps JeNathan eliminated (we really need Chateau's shadow times) then theres no need to look for an extra day rather we are in for another 36 hour pitstop between the Lithuania & Croatia legs.


Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6201
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #155 on: November 30, 2007, 04:25:45 PM »
Peach and patlini, your good work in my absence has caused me to research Air Baltic, which does not have anything of interest. However, Air Baltic's website sent me on to Air Estonia, which has an incredible flight nonstop from Tallinn, Estonia(the topmost of the 3 Baltic countries with Latvia in between and Lithuania on the bottom). I discovered that Tallinn is the only city from which Air Estonia flies to Dubrovnik. The flight leaves at 0730 and arrives DBV 0930. Unfortunately it is only twice a week on Monday and Friday in 2008, not clear which days in 2007 but probably the same. That does not help when we are looking for something on Thursday July 19, 2007. To connect to this flight, there are 3 daily flights from VNO to TLL, but the only one that makes sense would be BT335 on Wednesday departing VNO 1830 and arriving TLL 2000, with an overnight at or near that airport.

Offline patlini

  • Amazing Race Detective
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2122
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #156 on: November 30, 2007, 04:28:52 PM »
apskip - anyluck with air lot?


Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6201
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #157 on: November 30, 2007, 04:45:46 PM »
I don't know if I ever put up my best flight selections for Vilnius after connecting in CDG. The flight from OUA arrives CDG 0610 on Tuesday July 17. CDG is known to be difficult for a close connection. I am giving teams 1 hour 50 minutes to get onto:

AF1340 CDG AMS 0800 0920, connecting to
TE461  AMS VNO 1010 1325

There are several other choices, but all of them are earlier departures from CDG to arrive at 1325. One or two later ones arrive 1355 or 1410, but then it's a big gap to 1745. This could be where some of the separation between teams starts.

Online georgiapeach

  • Amazing Race Moderator
  • RFF Board Moderator
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 40580
  • TAR Detective
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #158 on: November 30, 2007, 06:59:55 PM »
Okay--thank you for all that work apskip!! Bur what do you think of the LOT flights? ???

Let me see if I can summarize what we have here and y'all correct me if I am wrong.

In terms of whether we can come up with some combo of flights which meets our time needs:

CDG to Vilnius   arr approx 1325 :yes:

Vilnius to Dubrovnik X

    -- need to review LOT flight though
    -- Charters are always possible--but they are frequently of the pull a number and go 1-2-3 variety. In this case, we believe we have TK/Rachel "missing a flight by five minutes" to drop from 1st place into the middle of the pack. It is possible that this info was not heard correctly--but if it was--it sure sound like commercial flights rather than charters, doesn't it?

Dubrovnik to Florence :yes: but late-ish arrivals

Florence onto India :yes:

Do I have that much right?
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline gingerman28

  • Senior Amazing Race Detective
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2015
  • GMan
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #159 on: November 30, 2007, 08:06:40 PM »
GMAN, teams are required to get to a designated airport for departure. They are not allowed to deviate to gain an advantage. Remember AR10 on Zanzibar, where going back to the mainland by hydrofoil and then flying out of Dar-es-Salaam aiport would have resulted in a big advantage. It was not allowed due to the constraints imposed by the clue. Your proposal would not be either because there is an airport in Florence. Teams will be required by the clue to fly to it.

Just depends on what the clue tells them to do; "Fly to Milan.  Find car with clue.  Drive to Florence....etc."  Just could be the way TPTB want it to play.


Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6201
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #160 on: November 30, 2007, 09:27:38 PM »
Peach and CHATEAU, I have studied CHATEAU's route through London and have concluded that it is feasible but risky starting from Vilnius on the morning of Thursday July 19. I could only verify the existence of BA2882, which is a Tuesday and Thursday flight at the time indicated below and a Sunday flight 2 hours earlier. The other flight that Chateau listed apparently did not fly at all that week. Here is what teams could take:

LO774  VNO WAW 0625 0650
CO255 WAW LGW 0825 1000
BA2882 LGW DBV 1125 1510

Note that this would get teams in 30 minutes sooner than those going VNO VIE ZAG DBV and arriving 1540. It is the only nonstop from London to Dubrovnik that I can now find(I did miss it earlier as one of my sources does not show it because it has 3 legs and you have to put those connections together manually and another of my sources is prone to requiring it to be the correct day-of-the-week to be useful).

NOTE: Peach is correct below. I did mean July 19.

« Last Edit: December 07, 2007, 09:37:27 PM by apskip »

Offline patlini

  • Amazing Race Detective
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2122
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #161 on: December 01, 2007, 08:40:16 AM »
Peach

I think your summary is correct.

I doubt the charter flights in europe, just because there are so many options available on airlines.  But maybe "the missed by 5 minutes" is that they were 5 minutes off pulling a ticket in the right order.  Tk and Rachel could have gotten lost on the way to the airport  :cmas18 (from what i've seen of their racing I wouldn't put it past this directionally challenged pair)

Online georgiapeach

  • Amazing Race Moderator
  • RFF Board Moderator
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 40580
  • TAR Detective
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #162 on: December 01, 2007, 07:39:03 PM »
I think apskip has a typo and means Thurs July 19.

And I don't know what to think about these flights. It makes me want to send them somewhere else first to get the arrival times in Dubrovnik right.  If Lithuania isn't a 36 hour Pitstop we have one day to play with. :pull:

They just better show us flight #'s this week! Somehow they must have a secret flight schedule! :lol:
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Offline patlini

  • Amazing Race Detective
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2122
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #163 on: December 08, 2007, 03:14:08 PM »
apskip - what do you think of it being a TBC and getting out to India on July 20th?  As I regulate  most of the flights I'd looked at left around lunchtime to Delhi (the major European hubs)  but I do recall my mother-in-law's flight to mumbai recently was an evening flight from London.

Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6201
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #164 on: December 08, 2007, 04:04:38 PM »
patlini, they are not going to get in to Florence and out to India on the same day. It isn't going to happen. You are correct in believing that the major flights from Europe to Delhi depart around noon, but some are as early as 1030. What you are missing is that with your arrival times into Florence of 1215pm and 145pm you already have a negative connect time, you aren't at a major hub, and no tasks have been completed in Florence. It is obvious that the departure from Florence could not be before evening of July 20 if TBC and morning of July 21 if elim. I expect elim.

Offline puddin

  • **puddinpiepork**
  • RFF Assistant Administrator
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 85481
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #165 on: December 08, 2007, 05:10:07 PM »
patlini, they are not going to get in to Florence and out to India on the same day. It isn't going to happen. You are correct in believing that the major flights from Europe to Delhi depart around noon, but some are as early as 1030. What you are missing is that with your arrival times into Florence of 1215pm and 145pm you already have a negative connect time, you aren't at a major hub, and no tasks have been completed in Florence. It is obvious that the departure from Florence could not be before evening of July 20 if TBC and morning of July 21 if elim. I expect elim.

back to back India?
something like this?

EP1 elim 11- Ari/Staella=10 teams left
EP2 elim 10-the Ministers = 9 teams left
EP3 elim 9 the Sisters= 8 teams left
EP4 elim 8- Lorena/Jason=7 teams left
EP5 elim 7- The Blonds =6 teams left
EP6 elim 6 -insert team = 5 teams left
EP7 Florence elim 5- insert team =4 teams left
EP8 India TBC? 4 teams TBC
EP9 India to Japan elim 4- insert team =3 teams left
EP10 Japan to Taiwan TBC final 3
EP11 Taiwan to Alaska final 3 = winners

Offline patlini

  • Amazing Race Detective
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2122
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #166 on: December 09, 2007, 08:58:12 AM »
Puddin

that timeline is looking the most likely.  I do like TBC's in India especially long train rides :cmas22

Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6201
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #167 on: December 09, 2007, 10:30:31 PM »
Peach and patlini, your requests for me to take a hard look at LOT (after Air Baltic and others that I did analyze) have finally been completed. Unfortunately, I needed a little help from the episode because what is involved here are 3 leg double connection routes. The way in which 3 teams were actually successful in reaching Dubrovnik as scheduled. including OS7059 which did not exist on July 19 according to my source but which is in the Austrian Airlines current schedule:

Vilnius Warsaw 0625 0650 LO774
Warsaw Vienna 0740 0905 LO223
Vienna Dubrovnik OS7059 1010 1120

The aborted route that could have work if arrival in Prague within 45 minutes of schedule had happened was:

Vilnius Prague 0600 0635 OK871
Prague Vienna 0730 0825 OK684
Vienna Dubrovnik OS7059 1010 1120

 There were several connecting opportunities from Prague to Zagreb, but one sensible approach would be the nonstop flight OK818 departing PRG 1200 arriving ZAG 1335. That leave one hour for the connection. However, TK and Rachel elected to continue through Vienna.
The first flight was easy: OS704 0840 0945
The next flight does not exist per my source, but does in the current Austrian Airlines schedule: OS731 dep. VIE 1315 arr. DBV 1440


Don and Nic took the OK818 routing direct to Zagreb:

OK818 1200 1335 PRG ZAG
OU662 1445 1540 ZAG DBV

Azaria/Hendekea probably got something like this through Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Zagreb:

TE460 0730 0905 VNO AMS
LH4673 1040 1150 AMS FRA
OU419 1430 1615 FRA DBV

They arrive 35 minutes behind the Don and Nic, who arrive 65 mintues behind TK and Rachel.

Complicated stuff!

NOTE: This was revised after Ken issued a reminder that both TK and Rachel and Don and Nic had been on the Prague flight(I had originally confused myself with a Frankfurt route out of Vilnius for Don and Nic, similar to their route in to Vilnius). Thanks, Ken.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2007, 07:16:31 AM by apskip »

Offline patlini

  • Amazing Race Detective
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2122
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #168 on: December 09, 2007, 11:08:27 PM »
Cheers apskip

like you said complicated stuff and the screened episode/pit stop times really didn't help much

Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6201
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #169 on: December 10, 2007, 07:39:49 AM »
Ah, but that is not correct, patlini. Knowing the first post-Vilnius city in each route made the puzzle much easier to solve, as all routes had to go through Zagreb at known times or through Vienna at one time. I really should have been able to do the leading 3 teams route earlier, but I just couldn't find the flight from Warsaw to Vienna. Probably the reason is that my main source did not identify the Vienna to Dubrovnik 1000 to 1120 flight on its own. It routes you through Zagreb and you have to be there well before 930am, which is impossible. Even well- programmed computer systems have their errors.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2007, 07:17:32 AM by apskip »

Online georgiapeach

  • Amazing Race Moderator
  • RFF Board Moderator
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 40580
  • TAR Detective
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #170 on: December 10, 2007, 06:55:36 PM »
Nice work apskip!
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Online serendipity

  • Honorary Amazing Race Detective
  • RFF Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 168
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #171 on: December 12, 2007, 10:24:37 AM »
Dubrovnik to Florence flights for July 20(my guess) are pretty easy to estimate. There are only 2 good options:

OU661 DBV ZAG  0640 0735
AZ545  ZAG MXP 1155 1325
AZ1694 MXP FLR 1515 1615

or

OU384 DBV FCO 1555 1700
AZ1681 FCO FLR 2130 2230

Some teams will get the early combination; others will not.


apskip, after reading the flight schedule you proposed, I wonder if Nicolas/Donald can catch up with the teams in front? According to Chateau's time, it seemed they probably arrived the pit stop in Dubrovnik at around 1830-1900, so assuming a 12 hour pit stop, they will start the next leg at 0630-0700, which makes them impossible to make the first flight.

So are there any option for them other than the second one you suggest, since they are in Italy in daylight from the preview? Or all teams start the tasks on 21 July?

Edited: Just try to search some flights on the web... wondering if this is possible?

20 Jul 2007
DBV FRA 0730 0935 LH2469
FRA FLR 1050 1220 LH4060
« Last Edit: December 12, 2007, 10:40:45 AM by serendipity »

Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6201
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #172 on: December 12, 2007, 01:34:41 PM »
serendipity, thank you for identifying another whole in the database that I rely on for routine historical airline information. That database has enough errors to resemble Swiss cheese right now. Yes, your flight combination like the ones suggested through Frankfurt to get to Dubrovnik(but not used except by Azaria and Hendekea who were left with few options) is excellent and much better than the morning departure to ZAG that I showed.  

If there is an airport crunch and limited capacity on OU418(the real flight number DBV FRA; LH2469 is the code-share version), then teams arriving early enough to know that could do this instead:

OU661 DBV ZAG 0640 0735
OU416 ZAG FRA 0955 1130
LH4062 FRA FLR 1230 1400, which will arrive 100 minutes after the earlier flight from Frankfurt to Florence.

I have reexamined my listed flight combinations and I see that the afternoon connection through Rome now appears to have a quicker arrival at 1850:

OU384 DBV FCO 1555 1700 (unchanged)
AZ1679 FCO FLR 1740 1850 (replaces AZ1681, the 2130 flight)

Can Nic and Donald make either of the  morning flight combinations? Possibly not because they would have to be at the airport(quite close to tthe pitstop) by 7am. If they could not get out on the early flights, then here are some later possible combinations:

OU669 DBV ZAG 1300 1355
LH3483 ZAG FRA 1435 1620
LH4064(not a legal connection; only possible if LH3483 arrives quite early) FRA FLR 1630 1800 or LH4066 2105 2235

OU669 DBV ZAG 1300 1355
OU414 ZAG FRA 1755 1930
LH4066 FRA FLR 2105 2235

These combinations are probably going to result in a deficit to my previous routing through Rome arriving Florence 1850. Nevertheless, if stuck in DBV I might take the shot at routing through Frankfurt because there is that slim chance that you can make LH4064 and shave 3.5 hours off your deficit.

« Last Edit: December 13, 2007, 07:18:29 AM by apskip »

Offline apskip

  • Geographer Extraordinaire
  • TAR Detectives
  • RFF Frantic Poster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6201
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #173 on: December 13, 2007, 12:01:04 PM »
After having recently responded to zachattack308 and receiving an inquiry from Peach, I think it's time to do this:

July 22 FLIGHTS FROM FLORENCE TO DELHI

0650 0855 AF5049 FLR CDG
1025 2300 AF148 CDG DEL

0715 0855 OS538 FLR VIE
1155 2345 OS33 VIE DEL

0725 0925 KL3135 FLR AMS
1105 2330 KL871 AMS DEL

July 22 FLIGHTS FROM FLORENCE TO MUMBAI

0650 0855 AF5049 FLR CDG
1030 2350 AF134 CDG BOM

0655 0840 LH4067 FLR FRA
1135 2350 AI126 FRA BOM

0715 0855 OS538 FLR VIE
1100 2320 OS35 VIE BOM

0735 0825 AZ1699 FLR MXP
1030 2310 AZ720 MXP BOM

0725 0925 KL3135 FLR AMS
1010 2350 NW34 AMS BOM
« Last Edit: December 13, 2007, 12:06:42 PM by apskip »

Online georgiapeach

  • Amazing Race Moderator
  • RFF Board Moderator
  • I Live at RFF
  • *****
  • Posts: 40580
  • TAR Detective
Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
« Reply #174 on: December 13, 2007, 12:37:57 PM »
Thanks apskip!

That helps a lot because now we (sorta--I don't trust the times anymore thanks to TPTB) know that teams have to hit the mat by late afternoon in order to make those AM flights on the 22nd.

And that fits much better with a possible Florence Pitstop.
"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan


 

Custom Search