Author Topic: TAR12 speculation on spoilers & teams etc ..  (Read 63004 times)

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Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #125 on: August 24, 2007, 09:45:33 AM »
I have developed another off-the-wall hypothesis that is just crazy enough to maybe be true. If the Amazing Race Asia 2 race and the AR12 race crossed in Prague on July 17, then it is possible that the Intersection that we had documented proof of for ARA2 could involve partnering ARA2 teams with ARA12 teams. If there were a mismatch in numbers of teams, there are ways to handle that (such as a Fast Forward for the leading team or a penalty for the lagging team). I doubt that there would be a mismatch of more than 1 in number of teams. Although it is possible that AR12 had 13 teams, I consider it most unlikely. I am guessing that they had 11 or 12. I am also guessing that ARA2 had more than 10 so they could have TBCs.

With respect to my post just above, I have been thinking about the "unknowns." It is not necessary that there were any unknowns if there were a total of 2 TBCs run doubling up in any of the specified locations. The "Eastern Europe to Malaysia" flight issues provided so much drama for AR11 that World Race Productions might just want to see that happen again.


Offline puddin

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #126 on: August 24, 2007, 02:53:43 PM »
Seriously, we cant rule out this being TAR12. These dudes look familiar to me... dig dig.
i found this today

http://www.flickr.com/photos/robertgarcia/832645844/
:tup: Yes, as best I can match it it's the small nook seen here at the Incheon (Seoul) airport (source).

Offline Kogs

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #127 on: August 24, 2007, 03:40:54 PM »
Seriously, we cant rule out this being TAR12. These dudes look familiar to me... dig dig.
i found this today

http://www.flickr.com/photos/robertgarcia/832645844/
:tup: Yes, as best I can match it it's the small nook seen here at the Incheon (Seoul) airport (source).

the pics in the link i found is
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Taken with a Ricoh Caplio GX100.
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Taken on July 15, 2007
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Offline puddin

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #128 on: August 24, 2007, 03:49:36 PM »
I'm still digging Kogs, both the camera men just strike me as "I've seen them before"  ???

Offline Kogs

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #129 on: August 24, 2007, 03:53:37 PM »
I'm still digging Kogs, both the camera men just strike me as "I've seen them before"  ???

i know!!! look back at the tar10 spoiler pics we got last year. thats where you prob saw them.


Offline puddin

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #130 on: August 24, 2007, 04:35:08 PM »

I did that Kogs  :lol:

Offline Kogs

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #131 on: August 24, 2007, 05:29:40 PM »

I did that Kogs  :lol:

:lol: im sure we will find it

Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #132 on: August 25, 2007, 09:52:53 AM »
We can now start a little Timelines work on the LAX to Ireland leg. The first question is did AR12 go into Dublin airport or Shannon airport (the only two international airports in the country that I am aware of). Since we can't answer that question, I will look at it both ways.

The obvious flight from LAX to Dublin would be the 10 hour nonstop EI144 leaving LAX 1630 arriving DUB 1030 GMT, Daylight Savings version. Somehow, I just don't think the Amazing Race would take this if they could do something on American Airlines. However, the only AA option through LHR leaves at 1805 anvd arrives 1630, 6 hours later, so I don't think they used American. Alternate flights from LAX to LHR are BA278 departing 1535 arriving 0945 and NZ2 departing 1140 arriving 1100, but then they have to get connections into DUB. Those connections are almost hourly.

Into SNN there are only a few options. Through DUB, there are only two flights a day from DUB to SNN. They are EI133 departing 1145 arriving 1230 or EI125 departing 1300 arriving 1345. EI144 would connect easily with either of those flights. However, the question of what happens if there is a delay across the Atlantic is a serious one. The fact is that Shannon is only a 3.5 hour bus ride across the center of Ireland from Dublin, but would the rules of the Amazing Race accomodate that? The connections from LHR to Shannon are more frequent. that AA136 flight noted above connects with EI165 to SNN departing LHR 1425 arriving SNN 1540.

If I were World Race Productions trying to have a stealth campaign to avoid detection, what would I do? I would have no connections, so I would put everyone on EI144 to Dublin and end the flying there. I would get them onto buses(not self-drive cars on the left hand side after an overnight) or taxis and take them to some remote Irish castle (there are hundreds of these). I would stay away from Dublin totally and sneak the teams back into Dublin airport at night in small groups for their departure.

Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #133 on: August 25, 2007, 10:09:32 AM »
I have also taken a look at the West African airlines to see the possibilities for AR12 getting from country to country by air. It can be done in selected instances. Most West African airlines have route structure set up to funnel passengers to and from Paris, with no regard for moving them between countries in West Africa. There are 2 notable exceptions, Air Afrinat and Air Ivoire. Air Afrinat goes to 3 cities a day for 6 of the days of the week. Air Ivoire focuses on the capital cities of Ivory Coast (Abidjan), Mali(Bamako), and Burkina Faso(Ouagadougou) with service several times a week between them. I am going to speculate that AR12 utilized the available air travel structure for stops in Bamako(or maybe Timbucktu now known as Tombouctou, which is a place flight from Bamako) before Burkina Faso and Abijan afterward. I have not found air routes involving Accra, Ghana, so I am placing that into a low probability category now.

Remember that teams landed in Ireland probably on July 4 and did not reach Prague until July 16. That is 12 days that they have to be in Ireland and other places. West Africa would be ideal to soak up extra time given the travel delays from non-daily flight schedules. I can see 3 legs possible there or elsewhere in Africa.

Offline patlini

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #134 on: August 26, 2007, 02:26:32 PM »
do you think that they could have gone to Belfast?  Northern Island is now one of the "hot" destinations in Europe.

A visit to giants causeway would be cool.

As to flights - if they did a hop to the east coast that would open up a bunch of options but i guess that wouldn't be very stealth....


Offline patlini

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #135 on: August 26, 2007, 02:31:59 PM »
I am also delighted that they are finally visiting Ireland - half of my family lives there  ;D

Offline Neobie

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #136 on: August 28, 2007, 02:06:09 AM »
Quote
Dubbed "The Brunei Adventure Race 2007" or BAR 2007, the event is divided into two parts; the first event is organised in conjunction with His Majesty the Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam's 61st birthday celebration. It will be held on August 26 at the Jerudong Park Playground.

That's interesting - I just read about this in the papers on the flight back from Brunei yesterday!

Didn't manage to find much of interest to us over there, but I did leave a few contacts in case any of my new friends found anything. I'd like to confirm that the BAR has little to do with TAR - it's more of an Eco Challenge thing than a TAR thing.

I'm wondering what they could possibly do in Brunei; any TAR challenges would most likely take place outside the capital (Seria for the oil, Temburong for the jungle - that's where BAR itself would take place).

Will keep listening out for more!
« Last Edit: August 28, 2007, 10:00:42 AM by Neobie »
Found out that Neobie in Chinese means "f*king awesome"! No, really. Look it up!

Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #137 on: September 06, 2007, 06:55:23 PM »
Here's some new thinking on timing and how AR12 might have started:

The information from WAMgirl at TWOP states definitively that the departure from LAX to Ireland was the afternoon of Sunday July 8. puddin's information is equally clear that AR12 started no later than July 3. Unless the information on when it started confused the usual multi-day lockdown period, then the first 2 legs must have been somewhere prior to departure from LAX.  My original hypothesis on where AR12 might go initially was Mexico or Central America before heading for West Africa. It is conceivable that the race started July 2 or 3 with 2 legs in Mexico (or maybe one of them in Central America, then one in northwest Mexico), then came over the border by plane, bus, boat or car to Los Angeles on July 8. Any location south or east of northwestern Mexico would not logically go through Los Angeles as a transfer point. It would go through Houston or Miami.

Offline gingerman28

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #138 on: September 07, 2007, 08:36:11 AM »
We can now start a little Timelines work on the LAX to Ireland leg. The first question is did AR12 go into Dublin airport or Shannon airport (the only two international airports in the country that I am aware of). Since we can't answer that question, I will look at it both ways.

The obvious flight from LAX to Dublin would be the 10 hour nonstop EI144 leaving LAX 1630 arriving DUB 1030 GMT, Daylight Savings version. Somehow, I just don't think the Amazing Race would take this if they could do something on American Airlines. However, the only AA option through LHR leaves at 1805 anvd arrives 1630, 6 hours later, so I don't think they used American. Alternate flights from LAX to LHR are BA278 departing 1535 arriving 0945 and NZ2 departing 1140 arriving 1100, but then they have to get connections into DUB. Those connections are almost hourly.

Into SNN there are only a few options. Through DUB, there are only two flights a day from DUB to SNN. They are EI133 departing 1145 arriving 1230 or EI125 departing 1300 arriving 1345. EI144 would connect easily with either of those flights. However, the question of what happens if there is a delay across the Atlantic is a serious one. The fact is that Shannon is only a 3.5 hour bus ride across the center of Ireland from Dublin, but would the rules of the Amazing Race accomodate that? The connections from LHR to Shannon are more frequent. that AA136 flight noted above connects with EI165 to SNN departing LHR 1425 arriving SNN 1540.

If I were World Race Productions trying to have a stealth campaign to avoid detection, what would I do? I would have no connections, so I would put everyone on EI144 to Dublin and end the flying there. I would get them onto buses(not self-drive cars on the left hand side after an overnight) or taxis and take them to some remote Irish castle (there are hundreds of these). I would stay away from Dublin totally and sneak the teams back into Dublin airport at night in small groups for their departure.

I have been away and out of touch so this may have been considered previously.  If they have been seen in the International Terminal at LAX then they most likely are flying on a foreign-flag airline since international flights on American, United, Delta, etc. would leave from their own terminals not the International Terminal.  So best bet they are on EI165 to DUB.

Another possiblilty, following someone's lead, the teams are in the International Terminal since they just arrived on a Mexican flight from Mexico.  Starting off in a foreign country, as we have speculated on previously, would certainly hide the teams departures.  Moving the teams individually to Central America or Mexico certainly would be a new wrinkle and would hide the beginning from snoops like us.

Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #139 on: September 07, 2007, 08:57:29 AM »
Gman, I believe you meant EI144, the nonstop from LAX to DUB. EI165 is a connecting flight from LHR to SNN.


Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #140 on: September 07, 2007, 08:58:27 AM »
To continue my speculation about northwest Mexico, here are some possible places where AR12 could have gone very quietly:

Chihuahua
Hermosillo
Mexicali
Tiajuana
Monterey

However, I believe that the most likely places for AR12 to go would have been La Paz near the southern tip of Baja California and Ensenada just south of Tiajuana. In both cases, getting to Los Angeles on July 8 would have been easy (flights from La Paz and boats, buses or cars from Ensenada).

I do not expect that places as far south as Puerto Vallarta or Guadalajara would have been involved, since both can be reached through Houston International Airport.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2007, 12:32:42 PM by apskip »

Offline gingerman28

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Spoilers
« Reply #141 on: September 13, 2007, 10:25:06 AM »
Me thinks it will be a  l    o    n    g Fall accommin  :dick

Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #142 on: September 13, 2007, 09:31:35 PM »
Continuing in the vein of speculating a first leg to Mexico, here are the logical starting cities in the U.S. for each logical northwest Mexico city that might have been chosen, with the mode of transportation by car to maximize the quiteness of the first leg:

Tiajuana and Ensenada - San Diego

Mexicali - San Diego or Palm Springs

Hermosillo - Tucson

Chihuahua - El Paso

Monterrey - San Antonio

However, La Paz at 1000 miles south of San Diego is too far to reach by road. Teams would have to fly there, but it could be from a lot of places (connecting through Los Angeles or San Diego).

Offline gingerman28

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #143 on: September 17, 2007, 03:39:08 PM »
I still think that there is a strong possibiliity that the TAR12 racers were flown independently to one of the Mexican locations.  Most are easy to reach through various US airports so they could be moved to Mexico without raising much fuss - which would attract the TAR Dectives like flies to honey!!

Offline apskip

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #144 on: September 17, 2007, 08:20:21 PM »
GMAN, you inspired me to do a little more research on LaPaz, which I think is a prime place for AR12 to go to on its first leg. I neglected to think about Cabo San Lucas, which has an international airport 2 hours by road from LaPaz, and which could be an alternate destination although it is more "touristy" with visitors more familiar with The Amazing Race.  To the International Airport of San Jose del Cabo, a 2-hour drive to La Paz, there are connections from San Diego, Seattle, Portland, Las Vegas, Denver, Dallas, Houston, Minneapolis, and Chicago as well as Canadian cities.

Offline gingerman28

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #145 on: September 18, 2007, 08:09:23 PM »
I'm always happy to provide inspiration.  Ask Puddin :kuss:

Offline puddin

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #146 on: September 18, 2007, 08:50:29 PM »
They are letting me out of the BB house tonight Gman!  :jumpy: I'm almost home handsome :luvu:

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #147 on: September 18, 2007, 09:21:55 PM »
They are letting me out of the BB house tonight Gman!  :jumpy: I'm almost home handsome :luvu:

get a castle suite love birds :waves: ;D

Offline gingerman28

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #148 on: September 19, 2007, 08:11:50 PM »
I'm still waiting for Transylvania to send me the deed to Bran Castle.  Believe me even with all the stories about Count Vlad connected with the place, it is a hellva better place to hole up for five months waiting for TAR than the BB house with all those dag gone cameras watching your every move.  Anyway Survivor starts tomorrow in China :jumpy:

Offline the_headcrusher

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Re: The Amazing Race 12 Speculation Thread
« Reply #149 on: September 19, 2007, 08:36:37 PM »
Quote
I have also taken a look at the West African airlines to see the possibilities for AR12 getting from country to country by air. It can be done in selected instances. Most West African airlines have route structure set up to funnel passengers to and from Paris, with no regard for moving them between countries in West Africa. There are 2 notable exceptions, Air Afrinat and Air Ivoire. Air Afrinat goes to 3 cities a day for 6 of the days of the week. Air Ivoire focuses on the capital cities of Ivory Coast (Abidjan), Mali(Bamako), and Burkina Faso(Ouagadougou) with service several times a week between them. I am going to speculate that AR12 utilized the available air travel structure for stops in Bamako(or maybe Timbucktu now known as Tombouctou, which is a place flight from Bamako) before Burkina Faso and Abijan afterward. I have not found air routes involving Accra, Ghana, so I am placing that into a low probability category now.

This post of mine may not have much relevance, but what the hell :js: 
When looking at flights from numerous African airlines going into places like Europe, you may not find many flights.  Quite a few of African airlines (and some eastern european) airlines that are banned from flying into Europe. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_air_carriers_banned_in_the_EU
Maybe this could help refine people's searches.

I could never be on this show :'(  Being obsessed with the airline industry (hopefully making it to airline pilot one day :yess:) there are quite a few airlines I wouldn't fly because of their spotty safety record.
A good landing is one you can walk away from.  A great landing is one where they can use the plane again.


 

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